000 AXNT20 KNHC 152344 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 644 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle southwest to the Bay of Campeche. Near gale to gale force northwest winds are expected across the SW Gulf of Mexico waters this afternoon and evening mainly south of 21N W of 95W. As the pressure gradient relaxes, gale force winds are forecast to diminish by 16/0000 UTC. In addition, the same frontal system is approaching the west Atlantic waters generating near gale to gale-force southwest winds east of the boundary north of 29N and west of 76W. These conditions will continue through Thursday afternoon. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to 01N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 01N21W to 00N36W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The Special Features cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. A pre-frontal surface trough was analyzed from 23N88W to 19N92W. The remainder of the basin west of the front is under the influence of surface ridging building in from northern Mexico and Texas, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 23N99W. The front will progress E of the basin by Thursday morning as gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail through Thursday. By Thursday night...the ridge is expected to shift E with southerly return flow re- establishing itself by Thursday night late into Friday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dry and stable south-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the basin providing for mainly tranquil conditions at the surface. Skies remain mostly clear with only a few isolated showers possible over the Windward Passage and in the proximity of Jamaica. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the basin and are expected to persist through Friday. The tail end of a cold front is expected to provide minimal impact to the northwest Caribbean on Thursday and into Friday as it continues to weaken across Cuba and remain north of the region by Friday night. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are possible across the island this evening due to low-level moisture convergence across the region. Upper-level dry air and stable conditions aloft prevail and will provide an overall tranquil weather pattern across the island through the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid to upper-level trough is noted on water vapor imagery approaching from the west currently over the southeast CONUS. The troughing supports a cold front analyzed from the Florida panhandle to the southwest Gulf of Mexico waters and will move into the west Atlantic waters by Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Strong to gale force winds are already occurring east of the front affecting the waters north of 29N and west of 76W. Please refer to the section above for details. To the east, another frontal system was analyzed as a cold front from 31N92W to 26N53W, as a stationary front from that point to 25N62W then as a warm front from 25N62W to 27N67W. A surface trough extends south of the fronts from 27N45W to 20N54W. Isolated showers are possible along the fronts. High pressure prevails across the remainder of the basin with fair weather. Expect for the cold front to enter the west Atlantic with convection. The frontal system across the central Atlantic will continue weakening. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA