000 AXNT20 KNHC 150107 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 807 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale... A strong cold front extends across the northwest Gulf of Mexico from 29N95W to 24N98W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the front mainly north of 25N between 90W-95W. Gale-force northerly winds are expected to develop within the next 24 hours over the Bay of Campeche south of 21N west of 95W as the front moves southeast across the basin. This gale event is expected to be short-lived with winds diminishing below gale force by Wednesday night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...Southwest N Atlantic Gale... A cold front is forecast to sweep off the southeast coast by late Wednesday. Southwest winds are forecast to increase to gale-force and seas building to 10 FT north of 30N west of 78W by Wednesday afternoon. The cold front is expected to sweep rapidly east and extend from 31N72W to 26N81W by Thursday morning with southwest gale-force winds within 600 NM east of the front north of 29N. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 03N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 03N19W to 00N35W to the South American coast near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 120-180 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 20W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front extends across the northwest Gulf of Mexico from 29N95W to 24N98W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the front mainly north of 25N between 90W-95W. Gale-force winds are expected to develop across the Bay of Campeche as the front moves southeast. Please refer to the section above for details. To the east, a weak 1015 mb surface low is centered over central Florida near 28N81W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northerly flow north of the front while gentle to moderate southerly flow prevails south of the front and mainly west of 90W. Light and variable winds prevail east of 90W. The cold front will move southeast during the next 24 hours enhancing winds/seas mainly across the southwest Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient across the Caribbean continues to weaken as the high pressure north of the region dissipates. This is resulting in a relaxing of the trade winds to gentle to moderate across the majority of the basin, except over the south central Caribbean where moderate to fresh winds prevail. Little change is expected over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are observed across the island transported by the trades. Expect for the shower activity to decrease in coverage over the next 24 hours as dry air spreads over the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal system extends across the basin analyzed as a cold front from 31N52W to 25N65W then as a weakening cold front from that point to 25N74W then as a weakening stationary front from 25N74W to a 1015 mb surface low near 28N80W. A 1017 mb surface high is centered near 22N68W. A surface trough extends from 27N45W to 20N59W with isolated showers. A surface ridge extends across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 22N30W. Expect for the northern portion of the frontal system to continue moving east. A new cold front will approach the southeast U.S. with winds increasing to gale-force over the far northwest corner of the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA