000 AXNT20 KNHC 131706 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1206 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to 03N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 03N19W to 01N40W to the South American coast near 01S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is south of 06N E of 16W. Scattered moderate convection is south of 06N between 16W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across northern Florida to 30N83W to 29N89W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 29N95W. Dense fog is noted near the stationary front over the northwestern Gulf. Northwest winds of 15 to 20 kt are north of the front. A pre- frontal trough extends from the western Atlantic, across central Florida, to the east central Gulf, and is associated with a northwesterly wind shift to the north of the trough. Mainly moderate easterly winds cover the remainder of the Gulf basin this morning. The only other notable feature is a thermal trough void of convection over the Bay of Campeche. Over the next 24 hours the cold front over the northeast Gulf will reach the southeast Gulf while weakening. The stationary front will transition to a warm front and lift north of the northwestern Gulf coast. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure pattern across the Caribbean is weakening today as high pressure north of the region begins to dissipate. This is resulting in a relaxing of the trade winds to 10 to 15 kt across the majority of the Caribbean, except over the south central Caribbean where winds are 20 to 25 kt. The only notable precipitation is scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms streaming in lingering moisture from a dissipated frontal boundary from Hispaniola to Jamaica to the Gulf of Honduras. Little change is expected over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are over Hispaniola due to a dissipating stationary front. Expect the showers to decrease in coverage over the next 24 hours once the front dissipates. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N77W and extends across northern Florida near St. Augustine. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N73W to 27N81W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm south of the front. A dissipating 1019 mb high is centered near 25N67W. Farther east, a cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N30W and transitions to a stationary front near 28N37W before reaching a 1010 mb low near 29N41W. A cold front extends from the low to 22N53W and then transitions to a dissipating stationary front to the Dominican Republic. High pressure of 1017 mb centered near 22N35W dominates the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic. Over the next 24 hours the high over the western Atlantic will dissipate while the cold front sweeps southeastward over the region. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto