000 AXNT20 KNHC 131106 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The surface pressure gradient between high pressure anchored across the W Atlantic and low pressure across northern South America is producing gale force E-NE winds along the coast of Colombia. The gale is forecast to end in a few hours on 13/1200 UTC. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to 03N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 03N19W to 00N26W to 02N37W to the South American coast near 02S44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of the monsoon trough from 01N-06N between 04W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 02S-05N between 21W- 29W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02S-05N between 30W- 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 31N84W to SE Louisiana near 29N90W. A quasi-stationary front continues to E Texas near 29N94W to N Mexico near 28N102W. Radar imagery shows the front is presently void of convection. A 1021 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf near 27N88W producing 10-15 anticyclonic winds over the E Gulf. Patchy fog mixed with broken low clouds are along the Texas and Louisiana coasts N of 28N, producing possible IFR conditions. Fair weather is noted elsewhere. In the upper levels, a large ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 92W with very strong subsidence. Expect in 24 hours for the frontal system to dip further S over the N Gulf to 27N, with showers over Florida. Furthermore, expect a new cold front along the Texas coast Tuesday evening with convection and 25 kt NW winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... A gale is presently along the coast of N Colombia for a few more hours. See above. 15-30 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The tail end of a quasi-stationary front is N of Puerto Rico and over Hispaniola producing scattered showers. Residual surface moisture in the form of scattered showers continues from Hispaniola to Jamaica to the Gulf of Honduras moving W with the tradewinds. Elsewhere, a good amount of broken to overcast low clouds with embedded showers are advecting over the Windward Islands and N Venezuela, from the Atlantic. In the upper levels zonal flow is over Central America and the Caribbean Sea with very strong subsidence. Expect over the next 24 hours for the front over the Atlantic to weaken, dip S, and produce areas of scattered showers from the N Leeward Islands to S of Jamaica. Also expect residual moisture to produce scattered showers from Jamaica to the Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, expect more scattered showers over the S Windward Islands and N Venezuela, within the tradewind flow. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are over Hispaniola due to the stationary front. Expect these showers to move S over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1020 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 26N67W. A 1010 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 29N43W. A cold front extends SW to 23N50W to 21N57W. A stationary front continues to Hispaniola at 18N74W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the fronts. A cold front extends from 32N31W to 29N35W to the Low at 29N43W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of this front. A small 1016 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 23N34W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 20N between 30W- 50W supporting the frontal system. Expect in 24 hours for the central Atlantic cold front to move E. Also expect a new cold front to move into the W Atlantic from 32N56W to 26N70W to central Florida with showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa