000 AXNT20 KNHC 130603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST Mon Feb 13 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The surface pressure gradient between high pressure anchored across the W Atlantic and low pressure across northern South America is producing gale force E-NE winds along the coast of Colombia. The gale is forecast to end on 13/1200 UTC. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 03N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 03N20W to 01N30W to 02N36W to the South American coast near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is along the monsoon trough from 01N-05N between 16W-20W. Widely scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 02S-06N between 20W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf near 27N87W producing 10-15 anticyclonic winds over the Gulf. A cold front is inland extending from central Alabama to E Texas to S Texas. Radar imagery shows the front is presently void of convection. Patchy fog mixed with broken low clouds are along the Texas coast, and along the coast of the Florida Panhandle producing possible IFR conditions. Fair weather is noted elsewhere. In the upper levels, a large ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 93W with very strong subsidence. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to dip over the N Gulf along 28N with showers over Florida. Furthermore, expect a new cold front along the Texas coast Tuesday evening with convection and 25 kt NW winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... A gale is presently along the coast of N Colombia. See above. 15- 30 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The tail end of a quasi-stationary front is N of Puerto Rico and over Hispaniola producing scattered showers. Residual surface moisture in the form of scattered showers continues from Hispaniola to Jamaica to the Gulf of Honduras moving W with the tradewinds. Elsewhere, a good amount of broken to overcast low clouds with embedded showers are advecting over the Windward Islands and N Venezuela, from the Atlantic. In the upper levels zonal flow is over Central America and the Caribbean Sea with very strong subsidence. Expect over the next 24 hours for the front over the Atlantic to dip S and produce scattered showers from the N Leeward Islands to S of Jamaica. Also expect residual moisture to produce scattered showers from Jamaica to the Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, expect more scattered showers over the S Windward Islands and N Venezuela, within the tradewind flow. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are over Hispaniola due to the stationary front. Expect these showers to move S over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 27N71W. A 1014 mb low is centered over the central Atlantic near 28N46W. A cold front extends SW to 23N53W. A stationary front continues to Hispaniola at 18N74W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the fronts. a stationary front extends from 32N35W to the Low at 28N46W. Isolated moderate convection is within 90 nm of this front. A small 1016 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 23N36W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 20N between 30W-50W supporting the frontal system. Expect in 24 hours for the central Atlantic cold front to move E. Also expect a new cold front to move into the W Atlantic from 32N61W to central Florida with showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa