000 AXNT20 KNHC 122248 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 548 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The regional pressure gradient between ridging anchored across the SW North Atlc...including the Florida peninsula...and lower pressure across northern South America is forecast to support near gale to gale force E-NE winds tonight into Monday morning. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 04N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 04N19W to 02N24W to 01N35W to the Equator near 40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-06N between 10W-20W...S of 07N between 23W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Water vapor imagery indicates mostly dry air aloft within a middle to upper level ridge anchored over the basin. Conditions remain fairly tranquil at the surface as a ridge anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 27N83W continues to provide mostly gentle to moderate E-SE winds. The ridge is expected to gradually dissipate as the next frontal boundary is forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by early Monday morning. The front will provide a brief period of N-NE winds across the northern waters...then quickly rebound into moderate to fresh SE winds as an area of low pressure develops across northern Mexico Monday night into Tuesday. Tuesday night...the cold front associated with the developed low pressure will emerge off the Texas coast introducing strong to near gale N-NW winds across the western Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough axis is noted on water vapor imagery over the central Atlc near 24N49W that stretches SW to a broad base over the NE Caribbean. The front supported by this troughing is analyzed as a stationary front from 22N56W to 19N72W across Hispaniola. Lingering low-level moisture and cloudiness extends across Hispaniola SW to Jamaica then to the coast of Honduras and the Gulf of Honduras. Widely scattered showers are occurring generally within 120 nm either side of a line from 21N60W to 19N72W to 16N88W. Otherwise...the remainder of the Caribbean is under mostly moderate to fresh trades outside of the Special Features area off the coast of Colombia. The trades are expected to gradually weaken into gentle to moderate breeze levels by late Monday as high pressure anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc weakens. ...HISPANIOLA... A stationary front extends along 19N/20N between 65W-72W providing focus for low-level moisture convergence and widely scattered showers across the island and adjacent coastal waters this evening. The front will be slow to dissipate through Monday providing an increased probability of showers and possible isolated tstms through Monday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Much of the SW North Atlc region is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 28N69W providing overall fair weather and tranquil conditions this evening. To the east...water vapor imagery indicates a weak middle to upper level trough over the central Atlc supporting a 1015 mb low centered near 29N47W and the associated cold front extending from the low SW to 22N56W where it becomes stationary to the NE coast of Hispaniola near 19N70W. The front lies within the southern periphery of the aforementioned ridging and is providing focus for widely scattered showers within 90 nm either side of the boundary. Scattered showers and isolated showers are also occurring to the NE of the low center from 29N-32N between 40W- 45W. Finally...a complex area of low pressure focused on a 988 mb low centered near 36N08W extends a cold front into the discussion area near 32N09W to 25N15W to 24N22W. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are occurring in the vicinity of 32N10W off the coast of Morocco. Otherwise...a ridge prevails across the remainder of the eastern Atlc anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 25N37W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN