000 AXNT20 KNHC 121118 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The surface pressure gradient between high pressure anchored across the W Atlantic and low pressure across northern South America is producing gale force E-NE winds along the coast of Colombia this morning until 1200 UTC. The same area along the coast of Colombia is expected to pulse to gale again this evening from 0000 UTC until 1200 UTC Monday morning. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 04N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 04N19W to 02N30W to the South American coast near 04S39W. Scattered moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from 03N-06N between 07W-12W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm either side of the ITCZ axis. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N68W. A ridge axis extends W to E Texas near 30N95W producing 10-15 kt E to SE return flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Patchy fog mixed with broken low clouds are over the NW Gulf N of 28N between Corpus Christi Texas and Mobile Alabama producing possible IFR conditions this morning. Fair weather is noted elsewhere. In the upper levels, a large ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 95W. Upper level ridging covers the entire Gulf with very strong subsidence. Expect in 24 hours for a weak cold front to drape the N Gulf States from the Florida Panhandle to E Texas. Expect this front to dip over the N Gulf along 27N in 48 hours with showers. Furthermore, expect a new cold front along the Texas coast Tuesday night with convection and 25 kt NW winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of a stationary front is over Hispaniola producing scattered showers. Residual surface moisture in the form of scattered showers continues from Hispaniola to Jamaica to NE Honduras. Elsewhere, a good amount of broken to overcast low clouds with embedded showers are advecting over the S Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, N Venezuela, and NE Colombia, from the Atlantic. In the upper levels zonal flow is over Central America and the Caribbean Sea with very strong subsidence. Expect over the next 24 hours for the cold front over the Atlantic to dip S and produce scattered showers from the N Leeward Islands to Hispaniola. Also expect residual moisture from the front to produce scattered showers from Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, expect more scattered showers along N Venezuela, N Colombia, and the SW Caribbean within the tradewind flow. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are over Hispaniola due to the stationary front. Expect these conditions to persist for the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N68W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 32N43W to 26N50W to 21N64W. A stationary front continues to Hispaniola at 18N74W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A small 1020 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 29N37W. A 996 mb low is over the E Atlantic n of the Canary Islands near 30N14W. A cold front extends W from the low to 27N24W to beyond 32N31W. Near gale force winds are noted near the Canary Islands and along the coast of Morocco. Scattered moderate convection is also N of 31N between 10W-15W. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 20N between 40W- 65W supporting the frontal system. Another large upper level trough is over the E Atlantic N of 20N E of 30W supporting the E Atlantic frontal system. Expect in 24 hours for the central Atlantic cold front to move E to 32N35W. Also expect the E Atlantic front to move E to W Africa. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa