000 AXNT20 KNHC 120552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The regional pressure gradient between ridging anchored across the W Atlantic and low pressure across northern South America is producing gale force E-NE winds tonight into Sunday morning. The wind field off the coast of Colombia is expected to pulse to gale again Sunday night into Monday morning. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 04N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 04N18W to 02N30W to the South American coast near 04S38W. Isolated moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from 00N- 05N between 06W-15W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm either side of the ITCZ axis. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N72W. A ridge axis extends W to E Texas near 30N95W producing 10-15 kt E to SE return flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Patchy fog mixed with broken low clouds are over the NW Gulf to include the coasts of Texas and Louisiana producing possible IFR conditions. Fair weather is noted elsewhere. In the upper levels, a large ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 95W. Upper level ridging covers the entire Gulf with very strong subsidence. Expect in 24 hours for a weak cold front to drape the N Gulf States from the Florida Panhandle to E Texas. This front will dip over the N Gulf, and will be followed by a new cold front along the Texas coast Tue night with convection and 25 kt winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of a stationary front is over Hispaniola producing scattered showers. Residual surface moisture in the form of scattered showers continues from Hispaniola to Jamaica to NE Nicaragua. Elsewhere, a good amount of broken to overcast low clouds with embedded showers are advecting over the S Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, N Venezuela, and NE Colombia, from the Atlantic. In the upper levels zonal flow is over Central America and the Caribbean Sea with very strong subsidence. Expect over the next 24 hours for the cold front over the Atlantic to dip S and produce scattered showers from the N Leeward Islands to Hispaniola. Also expect residual moisture in the form of scattered showers to continue W to the Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, expect scattered showers along N Venezuela, N Colombia, and the SW Caribbean in the tradewind flow. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are over Hispaniola due to the stationary front. Expect these conditions to persist for the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1026 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N72W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 32N45W to 22N59W. A stationary front continues to Hispaniola at 20N73W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A small 1022 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 30N38W. A 1000 mb low is over the E Atlantic near 30N18W. A cold front extends W from the low to beyond 32N30W. Gale force winds were noted N of this front near 32N25W on a 2214 UTC scatterometer pass. Scattered moderate convection is also N of the Canary Islands between 10W-20W. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 20N between 40W-65W supporting the frontal system. Also another large upper level trough is over the E Atlantic N of 20N E of 30W supporting the E Atlantic frontal system. Expect over the next 24 hours for both cold fronts to move E. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa