000 AXNT20 KNHC 111053 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The regional pressure gradient between ridging anchored across the SE CONUS...including the Florida peninsula...and low pressure across northern South America is producing gale force E- NE winds tonight into today. The wind field off the coast of Colombia is expected to pulse to gale during the late night and early morning hours through Monday. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 04N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 04N17W to 01N30W to the South American coast near 03S40W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-07N between 10W-15W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N between 21W- 28W. Scattered moderate convection is from 5S-00N between 37W- 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1029 mb high is centered off the coast of South Carolina near 30N73W producing 10-15 kt E to SE return flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Patchy fog is over the northern Gulf with fair weather elsewhere. In the upper levels, a large ridge is over the Gulf with axis over Mexico at 100W. Upper level NW flow covers the entire Gulf with very strong subsidence. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. Expect the next significant front to be along the Texas coast Tue night with convection and 25 kt winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of a cold front is over E Cuba producing scattered showers. The tail end of a prefrontal trough is likewise over Hispaniola producing more scattered showers. A good the Prime Meridian and 17W...and S of 04N between 21W-29W. amount of broken to overcast low clouds with embedded showers are advecting over the Leeward Islands and Windward Islands from the Atlantic. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over N Venezuela, W Honduras, and Guatemala. In the upper levels the Prime Meridian and 17W...and S of 04N between 21W-29W., zonal flow is over Central America and the Caribbean Sea with very strong subsidence. Expect residual showers from the front to be over Hispaniola, and Jamaica over the next 24 hours. Also expect N Venezuela and N Colombia to have more showers embedded in the tradewinds. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are over N Haiti due to the prefrontal trough, while more showers are over S Haiti due to low level moisture in the tradewind flow. Expect these conditions to spread over all of Hispaniola over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1029 mb high is centered off the coast of South Carolina near 30N73W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 32N51W to 24N60W to E Cuba at 20N77W. A prefrontal trough extends from 32N50W to 23N60W to N Haiti at 20N71W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 26N within 90 nm E of the trough. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60 nm E of the front a the Prime Meridian and 17W...and S of 04N between 21W-29W.nd trough. A 1027 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 32N37W. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 20N between 50W-75W supporting the frontal system. Expect the cold front to extend from 32N42W to 21N60W to Hispaniola in 24 hours with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa