000 AXNT20 KNHC 110542 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 AM EST Sat Feb 11 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The regional pressure gradient between ridging anchored across the SE CONUS...including the Florida peninsula...and low pressure across northern South America is producing gale force E- NE winds tonight into Saturday morning. The wind field off the coast of Colombia is expected to pulse during the late night and early morning hours through Monday. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to 05N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N16W to 05N20W to the Equator near 29W. Isolated moderate convection is S of 08N between the Prime Meridian and 17W...and S of 04N between 21W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1029 mb high is centered off the coast of South Carolina near 32N76W producing 10-15 kt E to SE return flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Patchy fog is over the northern Gulf with fair weather elsewhere. In the upper levels, a large ridge is over the Gulf with axis over Mexico at 100W. Upper level NW flow covers the entire Gulf with very strong subsidence. Expect the next significant front to be along the Texas coast Tue night with convection and 25 kt winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of a cold front is over E Cuba producing scattered showers. The tail end of a prefrontal trough is likewise over Hispaniola producing more scattered showers. A good amount of broken to overcast low clouds with embedded showers are advecting over the Leeward Islands and Windward Islands from the Atlantic. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over N Venezuela, W Honduras, and Guatemala. In the upper levels, zonal flow is over Central America and the Caribbean Sea with very strong subsidence. Expect residual showers from the front to be over Hispaniola, and Jamaica over the next 24 hours. Also expect N Venezuela and N Colombia to have more showers embedded in the tradewinds. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are over N Haiti due to the prefrontal trough, while more showers are over S Haiti due to low level moisture in the tradewind flow. Expect these conditions to spread over all of Hispaniola over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1029 mb high is centered off the coast of South Carolina near 32N76W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N54W to 26N60W to E Cuba at 21N76W. A prefrontal trough extends from 29N56W to 24N60W to N Haiti at 20N72W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 24N within 90 nm E of the trough. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60 nm E of the front and trough. A 1030 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 34N37W. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 20N between 50W-75W supporting the frontal system. Expect the cold front to reach 32N44W in 24 hours with convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa