000 AXNT20 KNHC 102307 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 607 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The regional pressure gradient between ridging anchored across the SE CONUS...including the Florida peninsula...and low pressure across northern South America is forecast to support near gale to gale force E-NE winds tonight into Saturday morning. The wind field off the coast of Colombia is expected to pulse during the late night and early morning hours through Monday. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to 05N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N16W to 05N20W to the Equator near 29W. Isolated moderate convection is S of 08N between the Prime Meridian and 17W...and S of 04N between 21W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Water vapor imagery indicates mostly dry and subsident NW flow over the basin this evening keeping conditions fairly tranquil. As of 10/2100 UTC...a weak surface trough was analyzed across the SW Gulf waters however was not producing any significant convection. While the Gulf remains stable aloft...at the surface...the southwestern periphery of a ridge anchored across the SE CONUS is providing mostly moderate E-SE winds with slightly stronger moderate to fresh easterlies through the western portion of the Florida Straits this evening. The ridge is expected to gradually move eastward into the SW North Atlc waters overnight into Saturday with moderate to occasional fresh southerly return flow continuing through Sunday night. By Sunday night...the next frontal boundary is forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts providing a brief period of N-NE winds across the northern waters...quickly rebounding as an area of low pressure develops across northern Mexico early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the SW North Atlc region supporting a cold front extending to eastern Cuba and into the NW Caribbean waters as a dissipating cold front from 21N78W to 21N85W. Mostly dry conditions accompany the front...however fresh NE winds are expected through mid-day Saturday as the energy associated with the front becomes diffuse and ridging strengthens to the N across the SW North Atlc. Otherwise...the remainder of the Caribbean is under mostly fair skies and conditions with only a few possible isolated showers occurring across the eastern waters and Lesser Antilles. Trades continue within moderate to fresh levels outside of the Special Features area off the coast of Colombia and are expected to strengthen slightly through the overnight hours into Saturday morning as high pressure moves off the SE CONUS and anchors across the SW North Atlc waters to the north. The high is expected to weaken by late Monday with the resulting trades diminishing in response to a relaxed pressure gradient. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island this evening. The remnants of a dissipating cold front currently analyzed to the N of the island will increase cloudiness and bring a slight chance of an isolated shower overnight into Saturday...however the more important impact is expected to be fresh to strong NE winds as high pressure builds across the SW North Atlc waters to the north tonight into Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the central Atlc with axis along 58W and the base of the trough remaining broad over much of the SW North Atlc waters. The troughing supports a cold front analyzed from 32N56W SW to 25N66W to eastern Cuba near 21N77W. A pre-frontal surface trough also extends from 31N56W to 27N60W to 21N70W. Scattered showers and widely scattered tstms are occurring primarily N of 25N between 51W and the pre-frontal trough axis. To the west of the front... ridging continues to build in across the remainder of the SW North Atlc waters with mostly moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevailing between the front and 75W. Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high centered near 33N36W. The high is expected to drift southward and weaken through Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN