000 AXNT20 KNHC 101805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 104 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA... The 12-hour forecast, that starts at 10/1200 UTC, consists of NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 12 feet, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 76W. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until 11/1200 UTC, consists of: the threat of a near gale or gale in AGADIR and TARFAYA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Liberia near 06N10W to 05N12W and 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 05N20W, and to the equator along 28W. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 07N southward from 20W eastward. isolated moderate from 07N southward between 20W and 52W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS CUBA, INTO THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A deep-layer trough cuts the central Atlantic Ocean to the SE Bahamas. The trough passes through Bermuda to 24N67W, to the Windward Passage/Haiti, to 16N75W in the Caribbean Sea. Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean to the NW of the trough, and in the Gulf of Mexico from 90W eastward. Middle level-to-upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward. A cold front passes through 32N60W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 25N70W, across Cuba near 22N80W, to 23N90W in the S central Gulf of Mexico. The front is stationary from 23N90W to 22N93W and 18N94W. A pre-frontal trough is in the Atlantic Ocean along 31N59W 28N63W 23N67W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, everywhere to the west and northwest of the trough. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong within 60 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N57W 29N58W 27N60W 25N63W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward between 50W and 70W in the Atlantic Ocean. A surface ridge passes through Georgia, to the southern tip of Florida and Andros Island in the Bahamas. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico from 24N northward from 73W westward. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: KVAF. MVFR: KMZG, KBBF, KHHV, KGUL, and KHQI. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: MVFR in Weslaco, Edinburg, and McAllen. rain in Hebbronville. MVFR in Hebbronville and Falfurrias. MVFR from the IAH to BPT and southward to the middle Texas Gulf coastal plains. from LOUISIANA to FLORIDA: VFR. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level SW wind flow curves anticyclonically, as it moves across Central America and South America, into the open waters of the Caribbean Sea, from Honduras eastward. Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow covers the NW corner of the area. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across the area. 24-HOUR rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 10/1200 UTC... according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.02 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow is present across the area, with the Atlantic Ocean-to-Windward Passage/Haiti trough. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling 2200 feet. La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1700 feet. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that W wind flow with a trough at the start of the 48-hour forecast period will become NW wind flow, as the trough eventually ends up with a NE-to-SW orientation. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that day one will start with N wind flow for about the first 6 hours or so, followed by NE wind flow, in a ridge, for the rest of the forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that NE wind flow will move across the area. Hispaniola will be on the southern side of an east-to-west oriented Atlantic Ocean-to-Florida ridge. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 23N23W to 16N35W 14N43W. Large-scale cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 28N northward from 26W eastward. A cold front/stationary front is along 32N between Africa beyond the Madeira Archipelago. A surface ridge extends from a 1034 mb high pressure center that is near 34N36W, through 32N40W, 26N51W, to 22N60W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT