000 AXNT20 KNHC 101117 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 617 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... The pressure gradient between a high pressure north of the region and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean during the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours through the weekend. Latest wave guidance shows seas building to 12-13 ft over the region with the strongest winds. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 11N16W to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 00N39W. Isolated showers are observed within 100 nm on either side of the boundaries between 10W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A frontal system extends across the southern portion of the basin, analyzed as a cold front from northern Cuba to 23N84W to 24N88W, then as a stationary front from that point to 23N92W to 19N96W. Infrared satellite imagery reveals a narrow band of cloudiness with embedded showers in association with this front. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 6-7 ft follow the front. The west part of the front will dissipate during the next 24 hours while the eastern part will continue moving across the Yucatan Channel and northwest Cuba today. Winds behind the front are forecast to quickly veer to the northeast as a high pressure in the wake of the front moves east over the eastern United States. By tonight, the high pressure will move into the western Atlantic, extending a ridge across the Gulf region. As a result, southerly return flow will set up over the western Gulf. These winds will spread east across the entire Gulf during the upcoming weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Please, see the Special Feature section for details. Elsewhere, scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the east and central Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds are noted over the northwest Caribbean. A fast moving cold front is entering the northwest Caribbean. The front will continue moving east while gradually weaken across the central portion of the basin. As a high pressure builds behind the front, expect increasing northeasterly winds across Cuba and the Windward Passage. Latest model guidance suggests that moderate to fresh northeast winds will prevail across the northwest Caribbean through the weekend with seas building to 8 ft. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to move across the region producing isolated quick-moving showers. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. By tonight, an approaching frontal boundary will bring increasing cloudiness with scattered showers and gusty winds. The front is forecast to stall near the island during the weekend while dissipating. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N66W to 23N80W with isolated showers. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N61W to 24N67W with scattered moderate convection. The latest ASCAT pass depicted fresh to strong southwesterly winds ahead of the front mainly north of 28N, while fresh to strong northwest winds prevail behind the front. The front will extend from near 31N54W across the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba by this evening, then will be near the coast of Hispaniola overnight, and stall there during the weekend. High pressure will build in the wake of the front by this evening. At that time, fresh to strong northeasterly winds are expected across much of the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the waters between the Bahamas and Cuba, and across the Straits of Florida. To the east of the front, a 1034 mb high persists centered near 35N36W and extending across the remainder of the basin. South of the ridge, fresh to strong trade winds are noted affecting the tropical Atlantic between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. The high pressure is forecast to remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours, then will move southward while weakening on Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA