000 AXNT20 KNHC 100540 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1230 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... The pressure gradient between a high pressure north of the region and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean during the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours through Sunday night. Latest wave guidance shows seas building to 12-13 ft over the region with the strongest winds. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 11N15W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 03N39W. Isolated showers are observed within 100 nm on either side of the boundaries between 10W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving across the Gulf of Mexico and extends from South Florida near 25N81W to 24N95W to 20N96W. Visible satellite imagery reveals a narrow band of cloudiness with embedded showers in association with this front. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 6-7 ft follow the front. The west part of the front will stall and weaken while the east part will continue moving across the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba by Friday morning. Winds behind the front are forecast to quickly veer to the northeast on Friday as a high pressure in the wake of the front moves east over the eastern United States. By late Friday, the high pressure will move into the western Atlantic, extending a ridge across the Gulf region. As a result, southerly return flow will set up over the western Gulf. These winds will spread east across the entire Gulf during the upcoming weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Please, see the Special Feature section for details. Elsewhere, scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the east and central Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds are noted over the northwest Caribbean. A fast moving cold front will reach western Cuba and the west Caribbean by Friday morning with convection. The front will continue moving east while gradually weaken across the western portion of the basin. As a high pressure builds behind the front, expect increasing northeasterly winds across Cuba and the Windward Passage. Latest model guidance suggests that moderate to fresh northeast winds will prevail across the northwest Caribbean through the weekend with seas building to 8 ft. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to move across the region producing isolated quick-moving showers. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. By late Friday, an approaching frontal boundary will bring increasing cloudiness with scattered showers and gusty winds. The front is forecast to stall near the island during the weekend while dissipating. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N70W to 25N80W with isolated showers. The most recent ASCAT depicted fresh to strong southwesterly winds ahead of the front, mainly north of 28N while fresh to strong northwest winds prevail behind the front. The front will extend from near 31N54W across the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba by Friday evening, then will be near the coast of Hispaniola by Friday night, and stall there during the weekend. High pressure will build in the wake of the front by Friday evening. At that time, fresh to strong northeasterly winds are expected across much of the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the waters between the Bahamas and Cuba, and across the Straits of Florida. To the east of the front, a 1035 mb high persists centered near 35N35W and extending across the remainder of the basin. South of the ridge, fresh to strong trade winds are noted affecting the tropical Atlantic between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. The high pressure is forecast to remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours, then will move southward while weakening on Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA