000 AXNT20 KNHC 091745 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1245 PM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal trough is along 31N65W 29N70W. A new cold front is approaching from the NW. Currently: SW gale-force winds and sea heights reaching 9 feet, are to the north of 30N between 67W and 80W. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA... The 12-hour forecast, that starts at 09/1200 UTC, consists of NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 13 feet, from 11N to 13N between 73W and 76W. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal border section of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N11W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W, crossing the equator along 29W, to 02S33W. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong to the south of the line 08N13W 07N20W 03N40W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS FLORIDA, INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A deep-layer trough is moving through the Carolinas and the rest of the SE part of the U.S.A. and its coastal waters of the Atlantic Ocean. The trough is pushing a cold front, that is moving through SE Georgia, the Florida Big Bend, the north-central Gulf of Mexico, into NE coastal Mexico. High level moisture is confined to the Gulf of Mexico from 27N northward. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, elsewhere. Scattered to broken multilayered clouds mark the cold front, in an east-to-west line in the central Gulf waters, and then southwestward along the Mexico coast. Convective precipitation: in the Atlantic Ocean...isolated moderate from 31N to 32N between 74W and 75W. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KVAF. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... from TEXAS to ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: MVFR in the Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area, in parts of the Ft.Myers metropolitan area, and in Naples. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 15N southward from Central America eastward. High level clouds are being pushed by the upper level winds. Middle level-to-upper level westerly wind flow moves through the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The westerly wind flow eventually blends in/merges with the cyclonic wind flow that accompanies the Atlantic Ocean-to-Hispaniola trough. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across the rest of the area, elsewhere, away from the anticyclonic wind flow. 24-HOUR rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 08/1200 UTC... according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 1.19 in Montego Bay in Jamaica; 0.23 in Trinidad, 0.03 in Curacao; and 0.02 in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow is present across the area, with the Atlantic Ocean-to-Hispaniola trough. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across Hispaniola. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows SW-to-W wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours. A trough will be to the NW of the area at the end of the 48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that a col point will be on top of Hispaniola at the start of the 48-hour forecast period. Hispaniola will be in the middle of an east-to-west oriented ridge and a north-to-south oriented trough. The col situation will continue for the first 12 hours or so. A trough will move across Hispaniola, from the NW, to the Mona Passage, by the end of day one. N-to-NE wind flow, in a ridge, will cover the area during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an anticyclonic circulation center will start on top of Hispaniola, and then it will move westward, giving NE wind flow to the area for the rest of day one. Expect more NE wind flow during day two, with Hispaniola on the southern side of an east-to-west oriented Atlantic Ocean-to-Florida ridge. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 28N67W to 23N69W beyond Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 24N to 29N between 60W and 67W. A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N14W to 22N20W 17N38W and 11N49W. 21N25W and 16N42W. A surface ridge extends from a 1036 mb high pressure center that is near 36N36W, through 32N44W, to 29N51W, 25N55W, to 21N66W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT