000 AXNT20 KNHC 090528 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1228 AM EST Thu Feb 9 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Gale Warning... The pressure gradient between a high pressure north of the region and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean during the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force within about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia during the overnight and early morning hours. Model guidance shows seas building to 8 to 12 ft over the region with the strongest winds. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 09N14W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 00N28W to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the boundaries between 10W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge dominates the entire region with fair weather. Latest observations indicate the development of patches of fog over the coastal waters west of 88W due to a moist and warm air spreading over relatively cooler waters. Gentle to moderate southwesterly winds are noted over the northern half of the Gulf while southeasterly winds are seen elsewhere. The ridge will weaken tonight as a cold front enters across the northwest waters. This front will move quickly across the basin, reaching from central Florida to northeast Mexico by this morning, then pushing through south Florida during the afternoon hours. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in the wake of the front, with seas building to 6-8 ft. Winds are forecast to quickly veer to the northeast by late Thursday as the high pressure behind the front moves east over eastern CONUS. By late Friday, the high pressure will move into the western Atlantic, extending a ridge across the Gulf region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Please, see the Special Features section above for details. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the central and east Caribbean while lighter winds are noted over the western Caribbean mainly west of 80W. A fast moving cold front will reach western Cuba and the northwest Caribbean by Thursday evening with convection. The front will move across the remainder of Cuba on Friday while gradually weakening. As a high pressure build in the wake of the front, expect increasing northeasterly winds across the west Caribbean. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow will move across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. By late Friday, an approaching frontal boundary will increase the likelihood of showers. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1035 mb surface high centered near 36N41W extends a ridge across the majority of the forecast area. Winds have increase to 20-30 kt just east of northern Florida due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and a low pressure located near Cape Hatteras. South of the ridge, mainly fresh trade winds are noted across the central Atlantic, particularly south of 20N, and east of the Lesser Antilles. These winds are expected to persist through the day. A surface trough extends from 28N73W to 24N73W. A band of moderate convection is ahead of this trough prevailing north of 26N between 64W-69W. A surface trough extends from 28N73W to 24N73W. from 31N71W to 27N73W. The trough is a reflection of mid-level trough that is moving eastward north of Hispaniola causing the ridge to retreat eastward. A strong cold front will move rapidly across the western Atlantic today, and reach from 31N61W to the southeast Bahamas and eastern Cuba by Friday morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA