000 AXNT20 KNHC 081802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 102 PM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...GALE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA... The 18-hour forecast, that starts at 08/1200 UTC, consists of NE to E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 12 feet, from 11N to 13N between 74W and 76W. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Liberia near 05N10W to 05N13W. The ITCZ continues from 05N13W to 05N22W, 02N23W, to 01N34W, and the equator along 40W. Convective precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong to the south of the line 07N12W 08N26W 02N50W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow is moving across the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The NW wind flow follows the middle level to upper level trough of 24 hours ago, that helped to support severe weather in some areas of the SE U.S.A. Gulf coast states yesterday. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery. An east-to-west oriented frontal boundary extends from Tennessee to Arkansas, Oklahoma, and beyond northern sections of Texas. The southernmost point of a north- to-south oriented surface trough reaches a point that is about halfway between Nuevo Laredo and Piedras Negras along the Texas/Mexico border. A surface ridge passes through 23N75W in the Bahamas, across NW Cuba, into the SE part of the Gulf of Mexico near 26N86W. A weak surface pressure gradient covers the rest of the area. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: KXIH, KMIS, and KDLP. IFR: KIKT and KVOA. MVFR: KMZG, KBBF, KBQX, KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KGUL, KHQI, KEHC, KGHB, KEIR, KSPR, and KGRY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... It is possible that severe weather may occur in parts of the U.S.A. coastal plains states this afternoon. Please consult watches and warnings from local NWS offices. TEXAS: IFR/MVFR from Weslaco to Edinburg to McAllen. Earlier morning LIFR/IFR conditions in parts of the Middle Texas Gulf coast areas have improved to VFR. IFR/MVFR from Rockport to Galveston, and MVFR in Sugar Land. LOUISIANA: MVFR/IFR from Baton Rouge southward and southwestward. LIFR/IFR/MVFR in the SE corner, to the south of Lake Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR from Natchez-to-Hattiesburg southward to Stennis. LIFR from Gulfport eastward. ALABAMA: MVFR from Dothan to Fort Rucker. IFR/LIFR in the southern sections/coastal sections that are between Mississippi and Florida. FLORIDA: LIFR/IFR/MVFR from Perry westward. Drizzle in Panama City. MVFR from Cross City to parts of the Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow covers the area that is from 16N northward from Jamaica westward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery across the entire area. 24-HOUR rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 08/1200 UTC... according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.12 in Trinidad, 0.06 in Guadeloupe, 0.03 in St. Thomas, and 0.01 in Curacao. ...HISPANIOLA... SW wind flow from 350 mb to 500 mb is moving across the area. SE wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb also is moving across the area. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that gentle anticyclonic wind flow and SW wind flow will be moving across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that anticyclonic wind flow, with an Atlantic Ocean-to-Hispaniola east-to-west oriented ridge will cover the area for the first 12 hours of day one. A trough will move to Hispaniola and become stationary for the rest of the 48-hour forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that SE-to-S wind flow will move across the area for the first 12 hours. Expect anticyclonic wind flow for the rest of the time, with an anticyclonic circulation center remaining across Hispaniola. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... a middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N75W to 25N75W. This is the same trough that moved through the Gulf of Mexico and the SE U.S.A. Gulf coast states. Some severe weather was observed in this section of the U.S.A. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 23N to 32N between 67W and 73W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 29N northward between 67W and 76W. High level clouds are to the NW of the line that passes through 32N51W 26N60W 22N72W. A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N29W to 26N30W and 25N36W. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery from 24N northward between 30W and 51W. A surface trough remains along 34N34W 30N40W 28N45W 26N53W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 25N northward between 30W and 60W. A surface ridge extends from a 1032 mb high pressure center that is near 35N47W, through 32N52W, to 29N57W, 24N65W, across the Bahamas, and beyond NW Cuba. A surface ridge passes through 32N24W to 30N29W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT