000 AXNT20 KNHC 081128 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 628 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... Strong east to northeast winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia will pulse gale-force by early Thursday, with max seas building to 12-13 feet, from 11N to 13N between 74W and 76W. These conditions will diminish by Thursday afternoon. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from 10N14W to 07N19W. The ITCZ continues from 07N19W to 00N37W. Scattered moderate convection is within 50 nm on either side of the the ITCZ axis between 19W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A squall line extends across the eastern Gulf and the Florida Peninsula along 27N east of 84W. This boundary is moving quickly to the southeast with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Latest surface observations are reporting fog across the northwest portion of the basin mainly north of 27N west of 88W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high centered over the central Atlantic near 34N50W. A thermal trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 23N89W to 20N91W. No significant convection is related to this feature. The squall line will continue moving southeast while weakening and entering the west Atlantic. A fast moving cold front is expected to move into the northern Gulf by Thursday morning and sweep southeast of the basin on Thursday night. High pressure will build behind the front on Friday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong trade winds prevail across the southern Caribbean south of 13N and will strengthen to gale-force by early Thursday as the Atlantic ridge shifts northeastward, tightening the gradient in the central Atlantic. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details about the gale winds. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. These winds are transporting low-level moisture that is enhancing isolated showers across the eastern portion of the basin mainly east of 70W. A fast moving cold front will move into the NW Caribbean by Thursday night, then weaken through Friday night. This front will enhance winds/seas across the area. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. These conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection is moving across the west Atlantic mainly north of 28N west of 74W. To the east, a surface high centered near 34N50W extends a ridge westward across central Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. This high covers the Atlantic basin with fair weather. A weakening cold front was analyzed from 26N52W to 31N38W with isolated showers. Expect for the convection over the west Atlantic to continue moving east. The front will dissipate today. A stronger cold front will move rapidly across the western Atlantic on Thursday enhancing winds/seas/convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA