000 AXNT20 KNHC 080523 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1223 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... Strong east to northeast winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia will pulse gale force in about 30 hours, with max seas building to 12-13 feet, from 11N to 13N between 74W and 76W. These conditions will diminish by Thursday morning. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough reaches the coast of Liberia near 06N10W. The ITCZ continues from 06N10W to 01N25W to 01S43W. Isolated moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the the ITCZ axis between 16W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A squall line extends across the northeast Gulf from 29N72W to 31N86W. This boundary is moving quickly to the east with numerous showers and thunderstorms north of 27N and east 86W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high centered over the west-central Atlantic near 33N54W. A thermal trough extends across the Yucatan Peninsula from 23N88W to 17N92W. The squall line is expected to continue moving east across the Gulf waters and Florida Peninsula tonight, then entering the west Atlantic. A fast moving cold front is expected to move into the northern Gulf by Thursday morning and sweep southeast of the basin on Thursday night. High pressure will build behind the front on Friday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong trade winds prevail across the southern Caribbean south of 13N and will strengthen to gale-force by Wednesday night as the Atlantic ridge shifts northeastward, tightening the gradient in the west-central Atlantic. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. These winds are transporting low-level moisture that is enhancing isolated showers across the eastern portion of the basin mainly east of 70W. A fast moving cold front will move into the NW Caribbean by Thursday night, then weaken through Friday night. This front will enhance winds/seas across the area. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. These conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface high centered near 32N54W extends a ridge westward across central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. This high extends across the west and central portions of the basin with fair weather. A weakening cold front was analyzed from 26N55W to 31N42W with isolated showers. Expect for the squall line currently over the northeast Gulf of Mexico to enter the west Atlantic during the next 12 hours. A mid-level trough moving through the southeastern U.S will push eastward through Thursday, causing the ridge to retreat into the west- central Atlantic. The front will become diffuse through Wednesday. A stronger cold front will move rapidly across the western Atlantic on Thursday enhancing winds/ seas/convection. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA