000 AXNT20 KNHC 072350 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 650 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... Strong east to northeast winds in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia will see winds pulsing back to minimal gale force in about 36 hours Wednesday night, with max seas building to 12-13 feet, from 11N to 13N between 74W and 76W. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough reaches the coast of Liberia near 05N10W. The ITCZ continues from 05N10W to 05N18W to 02S32W. Widely scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the the ITCZ axis between 14W and 34W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... Active convection and severe weather occurring in the Gulf coast from southern Mississippi and Alabama to the western panhandle of Florida is also producing non-severe thunderstorms in the far northern waters of the basin between 85W and 90W. A ridge axis extends across the central Gulf of Mexico from central Florida to southern Mexico. High pressure centered in the western Atlantic is shifting eastward. Showers are expected to move east into the big bend of Florida overnight, with little change elsewhere. A fast moving cold front will move into the northern Gulf Thursday morning, and sweep southeast of the basin Thursday night. High pressure will build behind the front over the NE Gulf Friday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong trade winds across the southern Caribbean will strengthen Wednesday night, and persist into the weekend. Please refer to the special features section for more details. A fast moving cold front will move into the NW Caribbean Thursday night, then weaken through Friday night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are expected elsewhere across the Caribbean through Sat. Fresh trades across tropical waters east of the Lesser Antilles will strengthen Wednesday as the Atlantic ridge shifts northeastward, tightening the gradient in the west-central Atlantic. ...HISPANIOLA... Clouds and showers associated with a trough north of Hispaniola along 72W will gradually diminish tonight and Wednesday as the trough shifts northwest away from the area. Expect mainly fair weather with a few daytime showers over interior terrain Thursday and Friday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure centered near 33N58W extends a ridge westward across central Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level trough moving through the southeastern U.S will push eastward through Thursday, causing the ridge to retreat into the west-central Atlantic. The trailing end of a weak cold front extends from 31N43W to 26N52W. The front will become diffuse through Wednesday. A stronger cold front will move rapidly across the western Atlantic Thursday, and reach from 30N60W to central Bahamas and central Cuba Fri morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell