000
AXNT20 KNHC 060504
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1204 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Strong E-NE winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea near the 
coast of Colombia are reaching minimal gale force tonight and are
forecast through 06/1200 UTC. This area will see pulsing of the 
wind field to minimal gale force each late night into the early 
morning hours through Wednesday. See latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more 
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 
10N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 02N20W to
the Equator near 38W. Widely scattered moderate convection is S 
of 04N between 13W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Tranquil conditions prevail across the Gulf this evening as the
southern periphery of a surface ridge anchored by a 1023 mb high
centered across southern Georgia influences much of the basin.
Generally fair skies are noted on shortwave infrared satellite
imagery with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds occurring E of
90W and moderate E-SE winds occurring W of 90W. The ridging will
shift eastward into the SW North Atlc by Monday night as gentle to
moderate E-SE winds are expected to veer more southerly into 
Tuesday. The next cold front is forecast to emerge off the Texas
and Louisiana coasts early Thursday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Aside from the near gale to gale force winds occurring across a 
portion of the SW Caribbean...the remainder of the basin is 
expected to remain relatively tranquil overnight into Monday as 
mostly dry air and subsidence prevails aloft as noted on water 
vapor imagery. Only a few isolated showers are possible across the
Lesser Antilles and portions of the SW Caribbean waters S of 12N
between 77W-83W. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades prevail 
with little change expected through Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers in moderate to occasional fresh trade wind flow 
will continue to affect the island through Monday. Conditions are
expected to remain stable overall as dry air and strong 
subsidence prevails aloft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Primarily zonal middle to upper level flow prevails over the SW
North Atlc region this evening...while water vapor imagery 
indicates subtle mid-level shortwave troughing N of the 
discussion area in the vicinity of 39N64W. This troughing 
supports a cold front extending through 32N74W SW to the Florida
peninsula near 28N80W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring
generally N of 29N between 69W and the front. Farther east... 
another cold front extends from 32N38W SW to 27N50W then begins to
weaken and become diffuse to 24N65W. Isolated showers are possible
within 120 nm either side of the front. Otherwise...the remainder
of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a 
surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 34N54W and
another surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high centered SW of
the Iberian peninsula near 36N11W.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN