000
AXNT20 KNHC 051748
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Sun Feb 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Strong E-NE winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea near the 
coast of Colombia are expected to reach minimal gale force 
tonight 06/0300 UTC...and continue to Monday morning 06/1200 
UTC. Winds are forecast back to gale from Monday night to 
Tuesday morning. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under 
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from the African 
coast near 07N12W to 03N20W to 01N30W to the South American 
coast near 02S44W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-06N 
between 08W-14W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03S-03N 
between 18W-40W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-05N 
between 46W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a 1026 mb high is centered over central Georgia 
near 33N84W. 5-15 Kt anticyclonic winds are over the Gulf of 
Mexico with strongest winds over the W Gulf. A surface trough is 
over the Bay of Campeche from 21N93W to 17N93W producing a wind 
shift. Radar imagery shows the entire Gulf is void of 
precipitation. In the upper levels, zonal flow is over the Gulf 
of Mexico with strong subsidence. Expect over the next 24 hours 
for continued high pressure ridging to dominate the majority of 
the Gulf with residual surface moisture over the Bay of 
Campeche.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A gale is forecast tonight for the coast of N Colombia. See 
above. The remainder of the Caribbean 15-30 kt tradewinds. 
Scattered showers are noted inland over Belize, Guatemala, 
Honduras, N Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. Scattered showers are 
also over Jamaica and Hispaniola. More showers are over the 
Leeward Islands and the Windward Islands. In the upper levels, a 
short wave trough is over Windward Islands. Zonal flow is over 
the remainder of the Caribbean. Strong subsidence covers the 
entire Caribbean and Central America. Little change is expected 
through Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over E Hispaniola. Mostly fair weater is 
over the remainder of the Island. More showers are expected to 
advect over the island from Puerto Rico, in the tradewind flow, 
over the next 24 hours. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 31N78W to S Florida 
near 26N80W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the trough. A 
1029 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 34N66W. A cold front is 
over the central Atlantic from 31N49W to 27N60W to 26N70W. 
Scattered showers are within 120 nm N of front. Broken to 
overcast multilayered clouds are NW of front. A prefrontal 
trough extends from 32N46W to 24N62W. Scattered showers are with 
60 nm of the trough. A 1033 mb high is centered over the E 
Atlantic near 35N15W. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to 
extend from 31N27W to 28N50W to 27N70W with showers.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa