000 AXNT20 KNHC 051113 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 613 AM EST Sun Feb 5 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Strong E-NE winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia are reaching minimal gale force this morning and are forecast through 05/1800 UTC. This area will see pulsing of the wind field to minimal gale force each late night into the early morning hours through Tuesday. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 05N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 05N16W to 02N20W to the Equator near 33W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 05N between 08W-18W...and S of 03N between 22W-39W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-05N between 42W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Middle to upper level flow remains zonal over the Gulf this morning...however a dissipating frontal boundary extends as a stationary front from the southern Florida peninsula near 26N82W to 25N83W to 25N90W. Farther west...a warm front has moved N across interior portions of SE Texas with lingering isolated showers occurring N of 24N W of 94W. The remainder of the basin in under the influence of the southwestern periphery of a surface ridge anchored by a 1026 mb high centered across the Carolinas. Mostly gentle to moderate E-NE winds are prevailing E of 90W and moderate E-SE winds are prevailing W of 90W. The ridge will be slow to drift E-SE through Monday as southerly return flow re- establishes itself throughout the day Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from the near gale to gale force winds occurring across a portion of the SW Caribbean...the remainder of the basin is expected to remain relatively tranquil as mostly dry air and subsidence prevails aloft as noted on water vapor imagery. Only a few isolated showers are possible across the SE waters and across portions of the western Caribbean along the coasts of Costa Rica...Panama...and Honduras. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades prevail with little change expected through Monday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers in moderate to occasional fresh trade wind flow will continue to affect the island through Sunday. Conditions are expected to remain stable overall as dry air and strong subsidence prevails aloft. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Primarily zonal middle to upper level flow prevails over the SW North Atlc region this morning...while water vapor imagery indicates troughing N of the discussion area in the vicinity of 39N50W. This troughing supports a cold front extending through 32N51W SW to 28N60W to 26N69W. A pre-frontal surface trough extends from 31N50W to 25N61W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring within 60 nm either side of the pre-frontal trough... while isolated showers are also occurring within 90 nm either side of the cold front. Farther east...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 35N17W. The ridge is forecast to slide eastward centering SW of the Iberian peninsula Sunday night into Monday morning. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN