000 AXNT20 KNHC 041757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 105 PM EST Sat Feb 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Strong E-NE winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia are expected to reach minimal gale force this evening...and continue to Sunday morning. Winds are forecast back to gale Sunday evening to Monday morning. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from the African coast near 05N08W to 03N20W to 01N30W to the South American coast near 03S42W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-06N between 07W-15W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N between 15W-29W. Isolated moderate convection is from 00N-04N between 29W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Fort Pierce Florida near 28N80W to Tampa Florida near 27N82W to the central Gulf of Mexico near 26N89W. A stationary front continues to 27N91W. A warm front continues further to the NW Gulf near 28N94W to Corpus Christi Texas near 28N97W. Scattered showers are over the W Gulf W of 95W to include the western portion of the Bay of Campeche where a surface trough extends from 20N94W to S Mexico near 17N94W. 10-15 kt NE winds are N of the cold front. Mostly fair weather is over S Florida and the SE Gulf S of the front. In the upper levels, a short wave trough is over the Bay of Campeche. Zonal flow is over the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Strong subsidence covers the Gulf E of 95W. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to extend from S Florida to the N Yucatan Peninsula with showers over the Yucatan Channel. Also expect high pressure ridging to dominate the majority of the Gulf with residual surface moisture over the far W Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A gale is forecast this evening for the coast of N Colombia. See above. The remainder of the Caribbean 15-25 kt tradewinds. Scattered showers are noted inland over Belize, Guatemala, Honduras, N Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. Scattered showers are also over the Caribbean from SW Haiti to Jamaica to the coast of E Honduras near 15N84W. More scattered showers are over the N Leeward Islands, and the S Windward Islands. In the upper levels, a short wave trough is over the far south central Caribbean. Zonal flow is over the remainder of the Caribbean. Strong subsidence covers the entire Caribbean and Central America. Little change is expected through Sunday. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are over SW Haiti. Mostly fair weater is over the remainder of the Island. More showers are expected to advect over the island from Puerto Rico, in the tradewind flow, over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N67W to 29N75W to Fort Pierce Florida near 28N80W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm N of front. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds are NW of front. A prefrontal trough extends from 32N59W to 27N65W. Scattered moderate convection is from 29N-31N between 59W-61W. Scattered showers are with 60 nm of the remainder of the trough. A 1030 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 29N31W. Expect in 24 hours for the cold front to extend from 31N46W to 26N60W to 25N70W with showers. Also expect the surface high over the E Atlantic to move rapidly NE to 35N15W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa