000 AXNT20 KNHC 041024 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 524 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Strong E-NE winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia are expected to reach minimal gale force Saturday night...and continue through Sunday morning. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 05N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 05N18W to 01N27W to 01N35W to the Equator near 40W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 05N between 10W-31W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01N-12N between 32W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the NE CONUS this morning supporting a cold front extending across the northern Florida peninsula near 30N81W SW to 27N90W to 27N92W then becoming stationary to the Texas coast near 26N97W. Isolated showers are occurring within 60 nm either side of the front E of 95W...with isolated showers and tstms occurring S of 27N W of 95W in the vicinity of the front and in close proximity to a surface trough analyzed from 24N99W to 20N96W. Otherwise... mostly moderate to fresh N-NE winds are prevailing E of 90W and moderate to fresh E-NE winds are prevailing W of 90W on the southern periphery of surface ridging across the Gulf basin anchored by a 1035 mb high centered across the Ohio River valley near 38N87W. The ridge will be slow to drift E-SE through Monday as southerly return flow re-establishes itself across the Gulf early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from the near gale to gale force winds expected across a portion of the SW Caribbean Saturday night into Sunday morning...the remainder of the basin is expected to remain relatively tranquil as mostly dry air and subsidence prevail as noted on water vapor imagery. Only a few isolated showers are possible across the Lesser Antilles and eastern waters this morning and across the western Caribbean from 15N-18N between 75W-84W in an area of maximum low-level moisture convergence. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades prevail E of 80W...and moderate NE winds prevail W of 80W. Little change is expected through Sunday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers in moderate to occasional fresh trade wind flow will continue to affect the island through Saturday. Conditions are expected to remain stable overall as dry air and subsidence prevails aloft. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the NE CONUS that supports a broad area of low pressure across the NW North Atlc focused on a 1007 mb low centered near 38N60W. The associated cold front extends SW to the Florida coast near 30N81W. Isolated showers are occurring within 120 nm either side of the front remaining mostly N of 30N. To the SE...a surface trough is analyzed from the central Bahamas near 23N76W to 27N70W providing focus for isolated showers and possible isolated tstms from 23N-28N between 70W-76W. The cold front is expected to move SE and S of 30N on Saturday introducing fresh to strong northerly winds with the frontal passage. By Saturday night the fresh to strong wind field is expected to diminish as high pressure re-establishes itself across the SW North Atlc region. Farther east...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 29N37W. The ridge is forecast to begin sliding eastward Saturday night into Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN