000 AXNT20 KNHC 040511 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1211 AM EST Sat Feb 4 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Strong E-NE winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia are expected to reach minimal gale force Saturday night...and continue through Sunday morning. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 04N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 04N17W to 01N28W to 02N43W to 01N48W. Widely scattered moderate convection is S of 05N between 09W-33W. Isolated moderate convection is S of 06N between 33W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the mid-Atlc and New England states this evening supporting a cold front extending from Jacksonville Florida SW to 27N92W then becomes stationary to the NE Mexico coast near 24N98W. Isolated showers are occurring within 45 nm either side of the front E of 95W...with isolated showers and tstms occurring S of 27N W of 95W in the vicinity of the front and in close proximity to a surface trough analyzed from 21N97W to 18N94W. Otherwise...mostly moderate to fresh N-NE winds are prevailing E of 90W and moderate to fresh E-NE winds are prevailing W of 90W on the southern periphery of surface ridging across the Gulf basin anchored by a 1036 mb high centered across the mid-Mississippi River valley. The ridge will be slow to drift E-SE through Monday as southerly return flow re-establishes itself early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from the near gale to gale force winds expected across a portion of the SW Caribbean Saturday night into Sunday morning...the remainder of the basin is expected to remain relatively tranquil as mostly dry air and subsidence prevail as noted on water vapor imagery. Only a few isolated showers are possible across the Lesser Antilles this evening and across the western Caribbean from 14N-18N between 75W-84W in an area of maximum low-level moisture convergence. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades prevail E of 80W...and moderate NE winds prevail W of 80W. Little change is expected through Sunday. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers in moderate to occasional fresh trade wind flow will continue to affect the island through Saturday. Conditions are expected to remain stable overall as dry air and subsidence prevails aloft. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the NE CONUS that supports a broad area of low pressure across the NW North Atlc focused on a 1012 mb low centered near 36N66W. The associated cold front extends SW to the Georgia coast near a weaker 1019 mb low centered near 32N81W. Isolated showers are occurring within 75 nm either side of the front remaining mostly N of 31N. To the SE...a surface trough is analyzed from eastern Cuba near 21N77W to 27N73W providing focus for isolated showers and possible isolated tstms from 24N-28N between 71W-77W. The cold front is expected to move SE and S of 30N on Saturday introducing fresh to strong northerly winds with frontal passage. By Saturday night the fresh to strong wind field is expected to diminish as high pressure re-establishes itself across the SW North Atlc region. Farther east...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 28N33W. The ridge is forecast to begin sliding eastward Saturday night into Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN