000 AXNT20 KNHC 031118 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 618 AM EST Fri Feb 3 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 03N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 03N19W to the Equator near 33W to the coast of South America near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 05N between 20W and 44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure of 1023 mb continues to meander over the northeastern Gulf near 29N85W, supporting fair conditions and light to gentle winds over the northeastern Gulf. A cold front is over the northwestern Gulf and extends from 30N92W to 26N97W. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds are north of the front. Scattered showers are within 180 nm southeast of the front. A thermal surface trough extends from 23N96W to 18N94W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with this trough continue south of 23N between 88W and 98W. Other than the winds behind the front and over the NE Gulf, mainly moderate to fresh easterly winds cover the Gulf basin. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region and climatological low pressure over Colombia has been supporting fresh to strong east to northeast winds over the south Central Caribbean for the past several days. Winds near the coast of Colombia have been pulsing to near gale force each night. Moderate to fresh east to northeast winds dominate the remainder of the Caribbean. Dry air and subsidence from aloft is inhibiting any deep convection across the basin. The only notable precipitation is associated with patches of trade wind showers streaming westward across the Caribbean, as well as showers along the coast of Central America. Little change is expected over the next 24 hours. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers in the trade wind flow will continue to affect the mainly the southern and eastern portions of the island through Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three surface troughs cover the SW N Atlantic this morning. One trough extends from 25N76W to 22N77W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the trough axis. Another trough, formerly a stationary front, extends from 30N62W to 24N71W. This trough is interacting with an upper level disturbance to support a broad area of showers within 120 nm of either side of a line from 31N61W to 25N72W. Isolated moderate convection with thunderstorms are north of 28N between 58W and 65W. A third trough extends from 28N58W to 23N61W. No significant convection is noted with this trough. A 1028 mb area of high pressure centered near 28N35W dominates the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic with fresh to strong trades covering much of the tropical central Atlantic. These winds support seas of 9 to 12 ft. Over the next 24 hours a cold front will exit north Florida and Georgia, supporting fresh to strong northerly winds north of 29N spreading east from the coast late tonight, reaching to near 65W by Saturday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto