000
AXNT20 KNHC 021732
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1232 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1730 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 
02N22W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone begins near 02N22W and
then continues to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N47W. 
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of boundaries between
15W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface high anchored over the central Atlantic extends
its axis across Florida to a 1023 mb high near 30N84W, then 
across the remainder of the basin. Light southeasterly winds
prevail across most of the area except over the northwest corner
where a tighter pressure gradient supports a gentle to moderate 
flow. Expect for the high pressure to continue across the
northeast Gulf through the next 24 hours. A cold front will enter
the northwest portion of the basin by Friday and move slowly 
southeast through the weekend.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient has tightened again over the central 
Caribbean, resulting in strong to near gale-force northeast winds
from 10N to 12N between 74W and 76W while moderate to fresh 
trades prevail elsewhere. These winds will pulse every night
through the weekend. Patches of low-level moisture are moving 
across the eastern Caribbean allowing for isolated showers to
develop mainly across eastern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and their 
adjacent waters between 60W-70W. Little change is expected through
the next 24-48 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers will move across the island due to shallow 
moisture in the trade-wind flow. This activity will continue
through the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening stationary front extends from 24N74W to 30N54W with 
isolated showers. The remainder basin is under the influence of 
broad surface high pressure being anchored by a 1029 mb high near
28N37W. Expect for the next cold front to enter the western
Atlantic by early this weekend enhancing winds/seas.
 
For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA