000 AXNT20 KNHC 020946 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 446 AM EST Thu Feb 2 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N11W to 03N16W to 01N21W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone begins near 01N21W and then continues along 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm N of the ITCZ between 17W-41W. Similar convection is from 0N-06N E of 17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface high pressure anchored over the central Atlantic extends a ridge axis SW across Florida to a 1023 mb high near 29N83W...then across the remainder Gulf of Mexico. Light S-SE winds cover the basin, except for the NW waters where winds are moderate due to a tighter pressure gradient with a low centered over Texas. Weather is generally fair being supported by low to upper level dry air. Shallow moisture over the far W Gulf support isolated showers off the coast of Mexico. The center of high pressure will remain nearly stationary in the NE Gulf today and then will move to SW N Atlantic waters Friday morning. This will allow for mainly gentle to light E winds across the central basin while a cold front enter the N-NW Gulf. The front will slowly move S-SE, but will prevail across the northern Gulf waters through Saturday morning when it will become stationary before dissipating Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient has tightened again in the central Caribbean, thus resulting in strong to near gale force NE winds from 10N to 12N between 74W and 76W and moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. CIRA LPW imagery continue to show patches of low level moisture moving across the north-central, NE and SW Caribbean allowing for scattered to isolated showers mainly across Hispaniola and Puerto Rico southern adjacent waters. Water vapor imagery show strong dry air subsidence elsewhere what is supporting fair weather. Winds in the south-central Caribbean will continue for the next two days possibly extending through the remainder weekend. Otherwise, showers are expected in the NW Caribbean Friday in association with the westward moving moist airmass currently in the NE and north-central basin. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered to isolated showers continue across Hispaniola and adjacent waters due to shallow moisture in the tradewind flow. Showers are forecast to decrease this morning then resume Friday due to trailing shallow moisture currently over the NE Caribbean Sea. ATLANTIC OCEAN... With lack of support aloft, a stationary front extending from 30N52W to 26N67W to the central Bahamas near 23N75W continues to weaken. Shallow moisture associated with this front support scattered to isolated showers across the Bahamas and within 120 nm W of the frontal boundary. The remainder basin is under the influence of broad surface high pressure being anchored by a 1028 mb high near 28N39W. The front is forecast to become a surface trough by this afternoon. The next cold front will enter SW N Atlc waters early Saturday morning with strong winds. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Ramos