000
AXNT20 KNHC 012318
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Wed Feb 01 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 
03N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 03N18W 
to the Equator near 40W to the coast of South America near 
02S45W. Isolated scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N 
between 06W-39W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC a 1022 mb high is centered over central Florida 
near 29N83W with 5-10 anticyclonic winds and fair weather. The W 
Gulf has a slightly tighter surface pressure gradient resulting 
in 10-15 kt SE flow. In the upper levels, WSW flow is over the 
Gulf. An area of upper level moisture is over the SE Gulf. The 
remainder of the Gulf has strong subsidence. Expect in 24 hours 
for the surface high to drift NW to the NE Gulf. 5-15 kt 
anticyclonic flow will then cover the entire Gulf. Scattered 
showers will be possible over the southern Bay of Campeche, 
while, fair weather will persist elsewhere.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-30 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds 
along the coast of Colombia. Scattered showers are over 
Honduras, the Gulf of Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize. Similar 
showers are over Costa Rica. More scattered showers are over 
Hispaniola, the Leeward Islands, and the Windward Islands. In 
the upper levels, zonal flow is over the Caribbean with very 
strong subsidence. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. 

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola mostly due to 
moisture in the tradewind flow. Expect little change over the 
next 24 hours. 
  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1025 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 30N62W. A stationary 
front is over the central Atlantic from 31N53W to 25N70W to the 
S Bahamas near 22N74W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the 
front. A 1030 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 29N38W. In the 
upper levels, the central Atlantic cold front is losing upper 
level support, and is thus forecast over the next 24 hours to 
dissipate. A surface trough will remain over the central 
Atlantic from 31N61W to 27N70W to 25N74W with scattered showers. 
 
For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa