000 AXNT20 KNHC 011702 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1202 PM EST Wed Feb 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 04N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 04N19W to 01N33W to the Equator near 40W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 07N between the Prime Meridian and 12W. Widely scattered moderate convection is S of 04N between 24W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... West-southwesterly middle to upper level flow prevails over the Gulf basin this afternoon as a trough axis extends from over the lower Mississippi River valley W-SW to over central Mexico near 24N104W. As the upper level feature approaches...only scattered cloudiness is noted on visible satellite imagery across the west- central Gulf waters from 22N-26N W of 90W. Otherwise...the remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high centered across the central Florida peninsula near 28N82W. Mostly light to gentle anticyclonic winds are noted E of 90W while gentle to moderate southerly winds are occurring W of 90W. The high center is forecast to remain nearly stationary across the NE Gulf and Florida peninsula through Friday with generally gentle to moderate easterly anticyclonic flow expected. In addition...occasional fresh easterly winds will be possible in the vicinity of the Florida Straits region Thursday night through Saturday night as the pressure gradient strengthens slightly. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mostly zonal upper level flow prevails over much of the Caribbean this afternoon. Along with relatively dry air and subsidence...the basin is experiencing overall tranquil conditions. A few isolated showers are occurring across the basin...however they continue to be quick-moving within generally moderate to fresh trades. Slightly stronger trades are noted in close proximity to the coast of Colombia S of 13N between 74W-79W. Little change in the synoptic weather pattern is expected through the remainder of the week and upcoming weekend. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers are possible this afternoon and evening as shallow low-level moisture and cloudiness moves across the island. In addition...a generally benign and dry westerly upper level flow pattern is in place over the island. Little change is expected through Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Water vapor imagery indicates very broad middle to upper level troughing over the eastern CONUS and SW North Atlc region with the base remaining along 30N. Mid-level energy sags S with a short wave noted in the vicinity of 28N78W. The weak upper level dynamics support a stationary front extending from 32N46W SW to the SE Bahamas near 22N73W. Isolated showers are occurring within 120 nm either side of the boundary. Ridging continues to build in behind the front as a 1025 mb high centered across the central Florida peninsula and another 1025 mb high centered near 29N71W. Farther east...across the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc...a surface ridge prevails anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 29N38W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN