000 AXNT20 KNHC 011140 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 640 AM EST Wed Feb 1 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 9 feet to 13 feet, are present from 10N to 12N between 74W and 76W. These conditions are in the coastal waters of Colombia. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through Guinea near 08N13W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04N18W to the equator along 33W, to 01S37W. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 01N to 06N between 03W and 06W, and from the equator to 01S between 47W and 50W. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 04N southward between 23W and 45W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level SW wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W westward. The wind flow becomes westerly from 90W eastward to Florida. The N-to-S oriented trough, that was across Florida six hours ago, now is in the Atlantic Ocean along 75W. A surface ridge passes through the Florida along 28N/29N, into the central Gulf of Mexico, beyond the coast of Mexico near 23N98W. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: KBQX. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... TEXAS: LIFR from Hebbronville to Falfurrias and Alice, in Victoria and Port Lavaca. MVFR in Bay City and Jasper. LIFR in Conroe, Sugar Land, and Pearland. LOUISIANA: LIFR in Lake Charles. MISSISSIPPI: LIFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: LIFR from Evergreen to Fort Rucker to Dothan. FLORIDA: MVFR in parts of the Pensacola metropolitan area. LIFR and light rain in Milton. IFR in Crestview and Valparaiso. LIFR in Marianna and in the NW part of the Panama City metropolitan area. LIFR from Tallahassee to Perry to Cross City to Brooksville, at the MacDill AFB, and in parts of the St.Petersburg metropolitan area. MVFR in Sarasota. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 17N southward. SE-to-S wind flow from 350 mb to 500 mb covers the area from 66W eastward. Easterly wind flow from 600 mb to 800 mb is moving through the same area, from 66W eastward. Middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the waters that are to the south of Hispaniola, with a 16N68W cyclonic circulation center. Comparatively drier air, in subsidence, is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the entire Caribbean Sea. 24-HOUR rainfall amounts in inches, for the period ending at 01/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.21 in Guadeloupe, and 0.19 in Curacao. ...HISPANIOLA... Northerly wind flow from 350 mb to 500 mb eventually becomes easterly, across Hispaniola. SE wind flow, from 600 mb to 800 mb, also is moving across Hispaniola. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 16N68W, about 125 nm to the SSE of the SE corner of the Dominican Republic. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the entire area. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo: VFR, after several observations of MVFR, and a ceiling at 1600 feet. La Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: VFR, after some observations of light rain during the last 9 hours. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: MVFR, ceiling 1600 feet. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that W-to-NW wind flow will move across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours, with SW wind flow at the end of the time. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that anticyclonic wind flow from a ridge and an anticyclonic circulation center will span the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow with an inverted trough will alternate with anticyclonic wind flow and an Atlantic Ocean-to-Hispaniola ridge. ..THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level SW wind flow is moving on top of a stationary front that passes through 31N49W to 26N58W. A surface trough continues from 26N58W to 23N67W and 20N73W at the coast of Haiti. Rainshowers are possible to the NW of the line that passes through 32N40W 26N55W 20N67W. A surface ridge passes through 32N55W to 29N75W, beyond Florida along 28N/29N. An upper level inverted trough is spreading cyclonic wind flow from 10N to 20N between 30W and 43W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean in the same area. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward between 20W and 64W. An upper level trough is digging through Mauritania. A surface ridge passes through the Madeira Archipelago, to a 1028 mb high pressure center that is near 29N36W, to 24N50W and 19N54W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT