000 AXNT20 KNHC 312355 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST Tue Jan 31 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A localized strong pressure gradient is expected to develop in the SW Caribbean Sea by 01/0300 UTC offshore of the coast of Colombia with gale force NE winds from 10N to 12N between 74W and 76W with seas 9 to 13 ft. This gale is forecast to last nine hours. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 05N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N18W to the Equator near 36W to the coast of South America near 02S45W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04S-02N between 28W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 2100 UTC a 1023 mb high is centered over the SE Gulf of Mexico near 26N84W with 5-10 anticyclonic winds and fair weather. The W Gulf has a slightly tighter surface pressure gradient resulting in 15 kt SE flow. In the upper levels, zonal flow is over the Gulf. A band of upper level moisture is over the W Gulf W of 90W between 23N-27N. The remainder of the Gulf has strong subsidence. Expect in 24 hours for the surface high to move to central Florida. 5-15 kt SE to S return flow will then cover the entire Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail end of a quasi-stationary front reaches NW Haiti near 20N73W. Scattered showers are over the Windward Passage and E Cuba. A surface trough is over the Dominican Republic from 21N70W to 18N69W moving W with the tradewinds. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over Honduras, the Gulf of Honduras, Guatemal, and Belize. Similar showers are over Costa Rica. More scattered showers are over Puerto Rico, the Leeward Islands, and the Windward Islands. 10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of Colombia. In the upper levels, zonal flow is over the Caribbean with very strong subsidence. Expect over the next 24 hours for more scattered showers to advect over Central America. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola mostly due to a trough in the tradewind flow. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 mb high is over the W Atlantic near 30N67W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N53W to 23N66W. A quasi- stationary front continues to NW Haiti near 20N73W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the fronts. A 1030 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 29N34W. The tail end of a cold front is E of the Canary Islands from 31N10W to 26N16W. This front is now mostly void of precipitation W of front. In the upper levels, the central Atlantic cold front is losing upper level support, and is thus forecast over the next 24 hours to become quasi- stationary and weaken. Elsewhere in the upper levels, an upper level low is centered along the coast of Morocco near 30N10W with scattered showers over Morocco. Another small upper level low is centered W of the Cape Verde Islands near 15N34W with scattered showers eithin 360 nm E of center. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa