000 AXNT20 KNHC 310005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N74W to 27N80W. Gale force winds are N of 28N W of front to 78W with seas 10-12 ft. This gale is forecast to last 12 hours. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. A localized strong pressure gradient is expected to develop in the SW Caribbean Sea by 01/0600 UTC offshore of the coast of Colombia with gale force NE winds from 10.5N to 13N between 74W and 77W with seas 9-12 ft. This gale is forecast to last 12 hours. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N13W to 04N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 04N18W to the Equator near 29W to the coast of South America near 1S46W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03S-03N between 30W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from S Florida near 27N80W to the SE Gulf of Mexico near 25N86W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm S of front. 15 kt N winds are N of front. A 1024 mb high is centered over the north central Gulf near 27N90W with 5-10 anticyclonic winds and fair weather. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over the far southern Bay of Campeche and S Mexico. In the upper levels, zonal flow is over the Gulf. A band of upper level moisture is over the central Gulf from S Florida to NE Mexico. The remainder of the Gulf has strong subsidence. Expect in 24 hours for the front to extend from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula, and for the surface high to move to central Florida. 5-15 kt SE to S return flow will cover the entire Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... A quasi-stationary front extends from E Cuba near 21N76W to Honduras near 16N84W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. 15-20 kt N winds are N of front. 10-20 kt tradewinds are over the remainder of the Caribbean with patches of scattered showers. In the upper levels, zonal flow is over the Caribbean with strong subsidence. Expect over the next 24 hours for the quasi-stationary front to stay while the Gulf of Mexico front moves south into the Caribbean with showers. ...HISPANIOLA... Presently isolated showers are over Hispaniola while in the tradewind flow. Expect over the next 24 hours for pre- frontal scattered showers to reach Hispaniola. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N74W to S Florida near 27N80W. A gale is W of front. See above. Scattered showers are within 90 nm W of front. Another cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N65W to E Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm W of this front also. A 1029 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 30N27W. In the upper levels an upper level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 20N W of 60W supporting the surface fronts. Expect the two fronts to move E with showers over the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa