000 AXNT20 KNHC 301625 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1125 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A localized strong pressure gradient is expected to develop in the SW Caribbean Sea by 01/0000 UTC offshore of the coast of Colombia with near gale to gale force E-NE winds occurring late evening and early morning through Wednesday night. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to 10N16W to 04N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 04N19W to the Equator near 29W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N between 09W-14W. Widely scattered moderate convection is S of 06N between 19W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Westerly upper level flow prevails over the Gulf basin this afternoon as a middle to upper level trough moves off the eastern US seaboard. The troughing supports a cold front analyzed across the central Florida peninsula from Cape Canaveral to Tampa Bay and into the eastern Gulf near 27N85W. While the front continues to move across the Florida peninsula and eventually E of the basin...surface ridging prevails anchored by a 1030 mb high centered across NE Mexico near 25N101W. Mostly light to gentle northerly winds are expected through tonight as the high center begins to shift eastward into Tuesday. By Tuesday...the high is forecast to be centered across the eastern waters and Florida peninsula providing light to gentle anticyclonic winds E of 90W and SE to S gentle to occasional moderate southerly return flow W of 90W. The ridge is expected to remain in place across the NE Gulf through Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front is analyzed from eastern Cuba near 21N78W SW to Honduras near 16N86W. The front continues to become diffuse with only a few isolated showers occurring across central Cuba and from 14N-18N between 84W-88W. While the front remains weak with regards to convective activity...fresh N-NE winds continue in wake of the front across the NW Caribbean this afternoon and are expected to gradually diminish through the overnight hours into Wednesday morning. Otherwise...the remainder of the Caribbean basin remains fairly tranquil with only a few passing isolated showers possible across the far eastern Caribbean and within 90 nm either side of a line from the Windward Passage to Jamaica to the NW coast of Panama. Low-level moisture convergence is maximized along this corridor. These light showers are embedded within moderate to occasional fresh trade wind flow...with slightly stronger trades as noted in the Special Features section above expected within the next 36 to 48 hours in close proximity to the coast of Colombia. ...HISPANIOLA... An approaching cold front currently extends to the NW of the island from the SE Bahamas to eastern Cuba. The front continues to be generally precipitation-free and weaken as it nears the Windward Passage region by this evening. Remnants of the boundary will cross Hispaniola on Tuesday with a slight possibility of isolated showers during the afternoon and early evening hours. Thereafter...NE to E moderate to occasional fresh winds are expected as high pressure anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level trough over the eastern CONUS and eastern US seaboard with a broad base over the waters offshore of central Florida. The troughing supports a series of cold front that continue to originate from a complex and broad area of low pressure across the NW North Atlc off the New England and mid-Atlc coast. The eastern-most cold front extends from 32N64W SW to the SE Bahamas to eastern Cuba near 21N78W and into the NW Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers are occurring within 120 nm either side of the front. The secondary front continues to weaken and the third front extends from a 1005 mb low centered offshore of the Delmarva near 38N73W. The front enters the discussion area near 32N76W to the Florida peninsula near Cape Canaveral. Fresh to strong W to NW winds follow in wake of the front...with clearing skies noted across the Carolinas... Georgia...and northern Florida. Farther east...across the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc...a surface ridge prevails anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 30N41W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN