000 AXNT20 KNHC 300604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 104 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W to 02N24W 02N35W 02N44W, to the equator along 50W. Convective precipitation: scattered strong from 01N to 03N between 34W and 39W, and from 02N to 05N between 44W and 54W. isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 10N southward. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough passes through the SE U.S.A. into the central Gulf of Mexico. This trough supports a second cold front, that now is passing through 32N74W, to 30N77W, and to Florida near 28N83W just to the north of the Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area. Comparatively drier air, in subsidence, is apparent in water vapor imagery, from the line 29N81W 28N90W 29N95W northward. A 1028 mb high pressure center is in NE Mexico, near 25N99W. One ridge extends from the 1028 mb high pressure center, southeastward, along the coast of Mexico, to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are present, in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Please read the EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...for more details. A second surface ridge extends from the NE Mexico 1028 mb high pressure center that is near 25N99W, to 25N90W and 25N80W. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... LIFR: none. IFR: none. MVFR: none. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... from TEXAS to FLORIDA: VFR. ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA... INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front passes through 32N68W, to 30N72W, across the NW Bahamas, including Andros Island, to a 1017 mb low pressure center near 22N80W along the coast of Cuba. A cold front extends from the 1017 mb low pressure center, to southern Belize, and central Guatemala. A surface trough extends from the 1017 mb low pressure center, to 16N83W. Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 16N to 20N between 58W in the Atlantic Ocean and Jamaica and SE Cuba. A trough extends from the southern coastal waters of Hispaniola toward the NE coast of Nicaragua. Comparatively drier air, in subsidence, is apparent in water vapor imagery, from 68W westward. No significant 24-HOUR rainfall amounts have been reported, for the period ending at 30/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC... a TRACE in Guadeloupe. ...HISPANIOLA... Cyclonic wind flow, from 350 mb to 800 mb, is moving across Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the entire area. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: nearby rainshowers. MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR. earlier ceiling has dissipated. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that W-to-NW wind flow will move across Hispaniola during the next 48 hours. An upper level trough will be on top of Puerto Rico, and then even to the east of Puerto Rico, during the next two days. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that southerly wind flow will move across the area during day one, with a Caribbean Sea trough. The trough eventually will move to the NE, into the Atlantic Ocean. Anticyclonic wind flow will cover the area during day two, with a ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an inverted trough will cover the area during day one. Day two will consist of anticyclonic wind flow with a ridge for the first half of the day, followed by NE wind flow for the rest of day two. ..THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deep layer trough is to the west of Africa, from 200 nm on the northern end to 1400 nm on the southern end. A surface ridge passes through the Madeira Archipelago, through a 1029 mb high pressure center that is near 29N37W, to 26N52W, to SE Cuba. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT