000 AXNT20 KNHC 292324 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 623 PM EST Sun Jan 29 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front extends across western Cuba, the Yucatan Channel and Peninsula with isolated showers. A strong surface ridging extends southward from northeast Mexico to 17N95W. A strengthened pressure gradient between these two features is generating near gale to gale-force northerly winds across the southwest Gulf of Mexico waters south of 21N and west of 94W. These conditions will continue through this evening. Thereafter, the pressure gradient is expected to relax gradually and result in winds diminishing by Monday. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 04N17W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 04N17W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate convection prevails south of 03N and west of 28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Aside from the Special Features near gale to gale-force winds occurring across portions of the SW Gulf waters, the associated frontal boundary remains analyzed from the Florida Straits as a stationary front into a weak 1017 mb low centered over western Cuba near 23N82W. A cold front continues southwest front the low into the Yucatan Peninsula. A large band of cloudiness and stratiform precipitation prevails in the vicinity of the frontal boundaries affecting the southern Gulf south of 22N. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northerly winds across the northern half of the basin, while fresh to strong winds prevail south of 22N. Expect for the ridge to remain anchored across eastern Mexico through Monday and then move eastward Monday night into Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front is analyzed along the northwest coast of Cuba into a 1017 mb low centered near 23N82W, then as a cold front from the low into the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N88W. Isolated showers are across the northwest Caribbean northwest within 200 nm south of the cold front. The remainder of the basin remains fairly tranquil with isolated quick-moving showers possible near the islands. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh trades across most of the basin, with slightly stronger winds occurring in close proximity to the coast of Colombia mainly south of 13N between 71W-77W. Expect for the cold front to continue progressing eastward across the NW Caribbean providing fresh to strong N-NE winds upon passage through Monday morning. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers extend across the island due to low-level moisture convergence on moderate to fresh easterly winds. Little change is expected during the next 24-36 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level trough over the eastern CONUS with an embedded shortwave trough axis extending from 32N81W to a broad base over the NW Gulf of Mexico waters. This trough supports a stationary front analyzed from 23N80W to 31N70W and a cold front analyzed from 30N81W to 33N74W. Cloudy skies and isolated showers prevail in the western Atlantic in the vicinity of these fronts mainly west of 70W. To the east, a broad area of high pressure prevails with a 1026 mb center located near 27N44W. Expect during the next 24 hours for the cold front in the west Atlantic to continue moving southeast merging with the stationary front. This enhanced boundary will then continue pushing east across the west/central Atlantic. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA