000 AXNT20 KNHC 291706 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1206 PM EST Sun Jan 29 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front extends across the northern Yucatan peninusla to the Chivela Pass near 18N94W with strong surface ridging extending southward from NE Mexico along the coast to 17N95W. A strengthened pressure gradient between these two features is generating near gale to gale force northerly winds across the SW Gulf of Mexico waters that are expected to persist through this evening until 30/0000 UTC. Thereafter the pressure gradient is expected to relax gradually and result in winds diminishing by Monday. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to 05N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 05N16W to 01N22W to the Equator near 40W. Isolated moderate convection is S of 04N between 14W-32W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 06N between 32W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Aside from the Special Features near gale to gale force winds occurring across portions of the SW Gulf waters...the associated frontal boundary remains analyzed from the Florida Straits as a stationary front into a weak 1016 mb low centered near 22N85W then as a cold front across the Yucatan peninsula to the Chivela Pass near 18N94W. While moderate to fresh NW to N winds prevail outside of the stronger SW Gulf winds mentioned above...scattered to numerous showers are occurring generally along and north of the front across much of the south-central and eastern Gulf this afternoon. Regional Doppler radar also indicates this includes much of the Florida peninsula S of a Jacksonville to Cedar Key line. Farther NW...skies begin to gradually clear as a surface ridge anchored by a 1033 mb high centered across NE Mexico near 25N100W extends a ridge axis E-NE to the Tampa Bay region focused on a 1022 mb high centered near 28N82W. The ridging will remain anchored across eastern Mexico through Monday and then move eastward Monday night into Tuesday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front is analyzed along the northern coast of western Cuba into a 1016 mb low centered near 22N85W then as a cold front SW across the northern Yucatan peninsula providing focus for isolated showers and possible isolated tstms across the NW Caribbean northwest of a line from 23N80W to 16N87W. Otherwise...the remainder of the Caribbean basin remains fairly tranquil with only a few passing isolated showers possible across the north-central waters focused in the vicinity of Hispaniola and Jamaica...and along the coast of Nicaragua. These light showers are embedded within moderate to fresh trade wind flow...with slightly stronger trades occurring in close proximity to the coast of Colombia...generally S of 13N between 71W-77W. The cold front will continue progressing eastward across the NW Caribbean providing fresh to strong N-NE winds upon passage through Monday morning. ...HISPANIOLA... Isolated showers extend across the island this afternoon due to low-level moisture convergence on moderate to fresh E-SE winds. Little change is expected during the next 24-36 hours. By Tuesday an approaching frontal boundary will lie to the NW of the island and bring increased probability of isolated to scattered precipitation. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level trough over the eastern CONUS with an embedded shortwave trough axis extending from 32N81W to a broad base over the NW Gulf of Mexico waters. The troughing supports a stationary front analyzed from 26N73W W-SW to the Yucatan Channel region and a forming cold front analyzed from 32N75W SW to the Florida peninsula near Jacksonville. Between these two fronts...within southwesterly flow aloft...plenty of cloudiness and scattered to numerous showers are occurring generally N of 24N W of 70W. This forming cold front will generate fresh to strong SW to W winds N of 28N through tonight and become fresh to strong NW winds across much of the SW North Atlc as the fronts merge and move east. Farther east...across the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc...a surface ridge prevails anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 29N39W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN