000 AXNT20 KNHC 282339 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 638 PM EST Sat Jan 28 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A stationary front extends from the Florida Straits across western Cuba and the northern Yucatan peninsula into a 1016 mb low centered near 22N95W. A strong high pressure prevails in the wake of the front centered over northeast Mexico near 28N102W. Near gale to gale-force northeast winds are depicted in scatterometer data within the western quadrant of the low. Mid-level reinforcing energy is expected to sweep over the Gulf of Mexico through the evening with the low pressure expected to move eastward along the frontal boundary. Strong to near gale northerly winds are expected across the western Gulf beyond Sunday in wake of the front as the pressure gradient begins to relax. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to 04N13W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 04N13W to 01S46W. Scattered showers are observed within 100 nm north of the ITCZ mainly west of 24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features above for more information about the low and frontal system that extends across the souther half of the basin. A surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf anchored by a 1035 mb high centered over northeast Mexico near 28N102W. Water vapor imagery depicts a middle to upper-level trough moving east-southeastward over eastern Texas and the southeast CONUS, providing reinforcing energy to the stationary front to make it transition to a cold front tonight into Sunday. The front will then move southeast exiting the basin. The near gale to gale force winds in the southwest Gulf will eventually diminish below warning criteria by Sunday as the pressure gradient relaxes. The surface ridge will remain in place through early next week with northerly winds prevailing. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends across western Cuba and the Yucatan channel region providing focus for isolated showers across the northwest Caribbean at this time. Elsewhere, tranquil weather conditions prevail with only quick moving isolated showers transported by the moderate to fresh trades. Stronger winds are noted in scatterometer data mainly south of 13N between 74W-77W. As the frontal boundary receives mid-level support across the Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 hours, a cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Caribbean on Sunday providing fresh to strong northerly winds upon passage through Monday. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevail across the most of the island as strong subsidence continues to provide an overall stable environment over the region. A quick-moving line of cloudiness and possible isolated showers extends across the western portion of the island and continues moving west. Little change is expected during the next 24-36 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the western Atlantic to the east of an approaching middle to upper-level trough progressing eastward over the southeast CONUS. The trough supports a frontal system analyzed as a cold front from 31N65W to 27N74W, then as a stationary front from that point to 24N80W. A secondary cold front remains to the northwest mainly north of 31N. No significant convection is observed within these boundaries at this time. The central Atlantic is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a stationary 1024 mb high centered near 29N40W. To the east of this ridge, another frontal system prevails analyzed as a cold front from 31N26W to 26N32W then as a weakening stationary front from that point to 21N43W. Isolated showers are possible within 45 nm either side of the cold front. Expect for the cold fronts to continue moving east through the next 24 hours while weakening. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA