000 AXNT20 KNHC 281718 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1218 PM EST Sat Jan 28 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A stationary front extends from the Florida Straits across western Cuba and the northern Yucatan peninsula into a 1015 mb low centered near 22N96W. Strong high pressure at 1030 mb is also analyzed to the north across Texas generating a strengthened pressure gradient across portions of the western Gulf of Mexico. Near gale to gale force N to NE winds are within the western quadrant of the low. Mid-level reinforcing energy is expected to sweep over the Gulf basin this afternoon and evening with the low pressure area expected to move eastward through Sunday along the frontal boundary. Strong to near gale northerly winds are expected to continue beyond Sunday in wake of the front as the pressure gradient begins to relax Sunday into Monday. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to 06N14W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 06N14W to 02N24W to 02N32W to the Equator near 38W then along the Equator to 46W. Isolated moderate convection is S of 05N between 14W-31W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 06N between 31W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Aside from the Special Features low pressure area mentioned above...the remainder of the Gulf basin is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high centered across central Texas near 31N101W. The ridge axis extends from the high E-SE along the northern Gulf waters to the northern Florida peninsula near 29N82W. Mostly zonal flow aloft prevails...however water vapor imagery indicates a middle to upper level trough continues to progress east-southeastward over eastern Texas and the SE CONUS. This troughing is currently providing reinforcing energy to the current front that will transition it to a cold front by tonight into Sunday moving SE of the basin by Sunday night. The near gale to gale force winds will eventually diminish below warning criteria by Sunday as the pressure gradient relaxes gradually. Beyond Sunday high pressure will remain in place through early next week with northerly winds prevailing. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front is analyzed across western Cuba...the Yucatan channel region...and the northern Yucatan peninsula providing focus for isolated showers across the NW Caribbean this afternoon. Otherwise...the remainder of the Caribbean basin remains fairly tranquil with only a few passing isolated showers possible across the eastern waters and within 75 nm either side of a line from 19N69W to 14N82W. These light showers are embedded within moderate to fresh trade wind flow...with slightly stronger trades occurring in close proximity to the coast of Colombia...generally S of 14N between 71W-78W. As a frontal boundary receives mid-level support across the Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 hours...a cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean Sunday providing fresh to strong northerly winds upon passage through Monday morning. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather and clear skies prevail across the island this afternoon as strong subsidence continues to provide an overall stable environment over the region. However...a quick moving line of cloudiness and possible isolated showers extends across the eastern portion of the island and continues moving west. Little change is expected during the next 24-36 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... West-southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the SW North Atlc region to the east of an approaching middle to upper level trough progressing eastward over the SE CONUS. The troughing supports a cold front analyzed from 32N63W SW to the Andros Island near 25N78W then becomes stationary to western Cuba. A secondary cold front remains to the NW analyzed from 34N70W to 31N77W. Both fronts remain relatively precipitation-free...however are ushering in moderate to fresh W to NW winds. The remainder of the central Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 28N42W. To the east of this ridge...a weakening cold front extends from 32N27W SW to 23N40W becoming stationary to 20N50W. Isolated showers are possible within 45 nm either side of the boundary. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN