000 AXNT20 KNHC 272348 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 648 PM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front extends from southwest Florida to near 23N88W, then becomes stationary to a 1016 mb low near 21N95W to 18N94W. The cold front will continue to move slowly southeast, reaching the Straits of Florida by Saturday morning while the stationary front will lift north as a warm front across the western Gulf accompanied by the weak low. Computer model suggests that a new cold front will enter the Gulf region by Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Northwest gale-force winds and building seas are forecast south of 25N and west of the front Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 08N12W to 06N14W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 06N14W to 00N30W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-05N between 24W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 mb surface low and a frontal boundary extends across the Gulf region. Please, see the Special Features section above for details. Doppler radar indicates a few showers in association with the front across South Florida and regional waters, including the Florida keys. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northeasterly winds prevailing north of the frontal system, while gentle to moderate southeasterly winds are noted south of the fronts. Expect during the next 24 hours for the surface low to move north. The cold front will drift south with isolated showers. Another frontal boundary will enter the northwest Gulf enhancing winds/seas through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... The southern tip of a stationary front is over the northeast Caribbean and extends from the northern Leeward Islands to near 16N67W. Moderate to locally fresh northeast winds prevail north of the front. Patches of low-level clouds with embedded light showers are noted in association with the frontal boundary affecting the northern Leeward Islands. Part of this activity is also reaching the US/UK Virgin Islands. Similar cloudiness is also noted across the remainder of the basin, mainly south of Cuba and over the Cayman Islands. The moisture associated with the weak frontal boundary mentioned before will continue to affect the northeast Caribbean tonight while it gradually dissipates on Saturday. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. Winds will pulse winds to near-gale force at night near the coast of Colombia. Expect for a cold front to reach the Yucatan Channel by early Sunday. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather and clear skies prevail over the island as strong subsidence continues to provide an overall stable environment over the region. On Saturday, expect some increase in moisture, under a southeast flow, with the risk of light showers. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N72W to 26N80W. To the east, a 1022 mb surface high is centered near 26N52W. Another cold front extends across the eastern Atlantic from 31N34W to 28N48W, then a weakening stationary front extends from that point to 18N63W. Isolated showers are observed along the northern portion of the front mainly north of 28N. The remainder of the area is under the influence of another high pressure of 1025 mb located just NW of the Canary Islands near 30N20W. Expect for the cold front to continue moving east. The next cold front is expected to move off northeast Florida on Sunday, reaching a position from 31N73W to the northwest Bahamas and western Cuba by Saturday afternoon. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA