000 AXNT20 KNHC 271105 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 AM EST Fri Jan 27 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A new cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Sat evening. On 1800 UTC 28 Jan the front will extend from 28N82W to 23N95W to 18.5N95W. NW to N gale force winds are forecast from 20N-23N W of front with seas 8-10 ft. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 05N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 05N16W to 01N30W to the South American coast near 03N51W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 01S-06N between 17W-35W, and from 01N-07N between 45W-53W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from central Florida near 27.5N80W to the SE Gulf of Mexico near 24N88W. A stationary front continues SW to 21N94W to the Bay of Campeche at 18N93W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the front. 15-20 kt N winds are W of front. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico E of front has 5-10 kt southerly return flow with fair weather. In the upper levels, the base of an upper level trough is producing zonal flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level moisture is over the N Gulf N of 25N. Strong subsidence is over the S Gulf. Expect the cold front in 24 hours to extend from W Cuba to the N Yucatan Peninsula with scattered showers. A new front and gale is forecast for Sat evening over the NW Gulf. See above. CARIBBEAN SEA... The southern tip of a stationary front is over the NE Caribbean from 17N60W to 15N66W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Elsewhere, scattered showers are inland over Panama, and Costa Rica. Similar showers are over the NW Caribbean near the Cayman Islands. 10-30 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the W Caribbean W of 80W. A trough is over the E Caribbean E of 80W. Very strong subsidence is over the entire Caribbean. Expect over the next 24 hours for portions of Central America to have scattered showers. ...HISPANIOLA... Mostly fair conditions and clear skies prevail over Hispaniola as strong subsidence continues to provide an overall stable environment over the region. Little change is expected through Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N72W to central Florida near 27.5N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A 1022 mb high is centered E of the Bahamas near 26N58W producing fair weather. A cold front is over the central Atlantic from 32N36W and continues S-SW to 26N40W to 20N53W. A stationary front continues to the NE Caribbean Sea near 17N60W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm E of front. A 1024 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 31N24W. A cold front is over the E Atlantic from 32N09W to 29N12W to 25N23W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is N of 20N between 35W-55W supporting the central Atlantic frontal system. Expect both fronts to move E over the next 24 hours with showers. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa