000 AXNT20 KNHC 241703 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1203 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strong area of low pressure analyzed at 986 mb offshore of the New Jersey coast near 39N74W is in association with a cold front extending into the discussion area near 32N68W. The front continues S-SW to 26N69W to the Windward Passage near 20N74W then SW to the coast of SE Nicaragua. Near gale to gale force S-SW winds are occurring immediately east of the cold front across portions of the SW North Atlc. Gale force winds are forecast to remain associated with the front through Wednesday. In addition...a surface trough is analyzed W of the cold front from 32N71W to 27N73W. Near gale to gale force W-NW winds are occurring generally N of 29N with this feature. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 06N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 06N18W to 01N30W to the Equator near 41W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 06N E between the Prime Meridian and 02W. Widely scattered moderate convection is S of 03N between 19W- 30W...and S of 06N between 30W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Middle to upper level ridging continues to support weak surface ridging at the surface with relatively clear skies and tranquil conditions expected through this evening into Wednesday. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail generally E of 94W...while fresh to strong southerly winds are expected across the far western Gulf waters. The southerly winds will gradually spread eastward through Wednesday morning as the next cold front is expected to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by the afternoon. Winds behind the front will shift northerly as high pressure builds in across the lower Mississippi River valley Thursday into Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Primarily W-NW flow aloft prevails over the entire Caribbean basin with water vapor imagery indicated very dry and stable air in place over the region. However...a middle to upper level trough is noted N of the basin over the SW North Atlc that supports a cold front analyzed from the Turks and Caicos islands near 22N72W to the Windward Passage then SW to the SE coast of Nicaragua near 11N84W. With upper level dynamics fairly stable...the front continues to carry broken to occasional overcast skies and possible shallow low-level isolated showers within generally 120 nm either side of the front. Farther east...weak low-level convergence is generating cloudiness and possible isolated showers across the eastern Caribbean...however no significant deep convection is expected. Otherwise...the front has disrupted the usual trade wind flow with generally light to moderate southerly winds E of the front...and light to moderate northerly winds expected W of the front through Wednesday as the front progresses E-NE. ...HISPANIOLA... Broken to overcast low clouds with possible isolated showers are expected this afternoon and evening as a cold front begins to move across island. Middle to upper level dry and stable NW flow prevails which will limit any significant deep convection. With frontal passage...by Wednesday high pressure will build in across the region and continued dry conditions are anticipated. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A negatively tilted middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the SW North Atlc region with axis extending from a mid-level vorticity maximum near 37N73W to a base near 26N67W. The troughing supports a cold front extending from 32N68W to 24N70W to the Windward Passage near 20N74W and into the SW Caribbean Sea. As mentioned in the Special Features section...near gale to gale force wind are occurring on both side of the front at this time. Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring N of 24N within 240 nm E of the front...while isolated showers are occurring within 180 nm E of the front S of 24N. Mostly fresh to strong W to NW winds are occurring across the remainder of the SW North Atlc to the W of the front. High pressure is expected to build in across the region through Wednesday into Wednesday night gradually ushering in light to moderate anticyclonic winds. Farther east...the remainder of the central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of a pair of surface ridges. One surface ridge is anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 27N49W and the other is a 1029 mb high centered near 33N20W extending a ridge axis SW to 23N34W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN