000 AXNT20 KNHC 231122 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 622 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A strong cold front is crossing the southeastern Gulf of Mexico from 22N85W to 26N82W. Gale force northerly winds are occurring north of 24N west of the front with seas to 20 ft. These conditions are expected to continue through the evening hours. For more information, please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... The same cold front noted above is moving across the west Atlantic supporting southwest winds ranging between 30-40 kt north of 25N west of 77W and seas building to 14 ft. These conditions continue through the next 48 hours as the front moves across the area with winds ranging between 30-35 kt by the evening hours north of 23.5N and within 180 nm east of the front. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes across the coast of Africa near 09N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ begins from that point and extends to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N-06N between 30W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A vigorous upper-level trough over the southern United States supports a strong cold front that extends from 22N85W to 26N82W. Gale force winds are occurring behind the front mainly north of 24N. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. The cold front will continue to move rapidly southeastward and exit the eastern Gulf by later this morning. Winds and seas will gradually subside by the afternoon hours. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1017 mb surface high is centered over the central Atlantic and extends across most of the basin. The tail end of a surface trough extends over the Virgin Islands with isolated showers. The latest scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate trades across the basin except north of 15N west of 78W where fresh to strong southerly winds prevail ahead of a cold front that currently extends from 22N85W to 16N87W. The cold front will reach from eastern Cuba to the Honduras/Nicaragua border by this evening. Strong northwest winds will occur north of the front. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Dry air in subsidence prevails over island at this time. These conditions will prevail through the day. A cold front approaching from the northwest will bring increasing southerly winds through Tuesday. Showers are possible on Tuesday through Tuesday night as the front crosses the island. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A strong cold front extends from 31N79W to 27N80W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the front affecting the west Atlantic waters west of 75W. Gale-force winds are occurring east of the front. To the east, a 1017 mb surface high prevails across the west Atlantic centered near 26N56W. A weakening stationary front extends from 30N43W to 23N51W. Scattered showers prevail east of the front between 38W-42W. A surface trough extend from 22N56W to 17N65W with isolated showers. A 1028 mb high pressure is centered near 33N24W dominating the eastern Atlantic. Thunderstorms and winds will continue through this afternoon over the Florida offshore waters in the vicinity of the cold front with gale force winds. Please see the Special Features section above for more details regarding this gale. The weakening front in the central Atlantic will dissipate. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA