000 AXNT20 KNHC 230519 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1219 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A strong cold front is crossing the eastern Gulf of Mexico from 29N83W to 21N88W. Gale force northerly winds are occurring north of 23N west of the front with seas to 18 ft. There's also gale force winds occurring north of 25N and east of the front with seas building to 11 ft. These conditions are expected to continue through the next 24 hours. For more information, please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... The same cold front noted above is approaching the southwest Atlantic supporting southwest winds ranging between 30-35 kt north of 29N west of 77W and seas building to 11 ft. These conditions continue through the next 48 hours as the front moves across the area with winds increasing to 30 to 40 kt by Monday afternoon north of 23.5N within 150 nm east of the front. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes across the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 03N21W. The ITCZ begins from that point and extends to 00N43W. Isolated moderate convection is observed within 100 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 28W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A vigorous upper-level trough over the southern United States supports a strong cold front that extends from 29N83W to 21N88W. Gale force winds are occurring both ahead of and behind the front mainly north of 23N. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. The cold front will continue to move rapidly southeastward and exit the eastern Gulf by Monday morning. Winds and seas will gradually subside beginning Monday afternoon. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1017 mb surface high is centered northeast of Puerto Rico and extends across most of the basin. The tail end of a surface trough, formerly a stationary front, extends over the Virgin Islands with isolated showers. The latest scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate trades east of 78W and south of 15N west of 78W while fresh to strong southerly winds are north of 15N west of 78W, ahead of an approaching cold front over the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean late tonight and reach from eastern Cuba to the Honduras/Nicaragua border by Monday evening. Strong northwest winds will occur north of the front. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Dry air in subsidence prevails over island at this time. These conditions will prevail through early Monday. A cold front approaching from the northwest will bring increasing southerly winds Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Showers are possible on Tuesday through Tuesday night as the front crosses the island. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A strong cold front is approaching the southeastern United States supporting clusters of thunderstorms over the Atlantic waters north of 29N west of 76W with strong to gale southwesterly winds. To the east, a 1016 mb surface high prevails across the west Atlantic centered near 25N62W. A stationary front extends from 31N42W to 25N48W, then transitions to a surface trough to 18N63W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 25N between 40W-44W. A 1029 mb area of high pressure centered near 34N22W dominates the eastern Atlantic. Over the next 24 hours, thunderstorms and winds will increase over the Florida offshore waters in the vicinity of the approaching cold front with gale force winds. Please see the Special Features section above for more details regarding this gale. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA