000 AXNT20 KNHC 221117 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 617 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A strong cold front is forecast has entered the northwest Gulf. Winds are expected to increase to 30-40 kt after sunrise today with seas building to 11 ft. By Sunday afternoon, northwest winds of 30-40 KT spread over the northern half of the Gulf with seas building to 16 ft. By late Sunday, the broad fetch of gale-force winds builds seas to 19 ft. For more information, please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... The same cold front noted above will sweep eastward into the southwest Atlantic with southwest winds increasing to 30-35 kt north of 31N west of 77W by this evening and seas building to 13 ft. These conditions will prevail through the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 01N23W. The ITCZ begins from that point to 00N31W to 00N44W. Isolated showers prevail within 200 nm on either side of these boundaries between 18W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Fair weather prevails across most of the basin at this time. A deepening low pressure is centered over southern Oklahoma extending a cold front that reaches the northwest Gulf waters and northeast Mexico. This system will continue moving eastward with the front extending across the basin during the next 24 hours. Gale-force winds will develop in the proximity of the front affecting mainly the northern half of the Gulf. Please refer to the section above for more details. At this time, scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh southerly winds across the basin except west of the front where fresh to strong northerly winds prevail north of 26N and west of 93W. Expect for the front to sweep rapidly east and extend from the Florida Big Bend into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Conditions will improve gradually from west to east by early next week as a surface ridge builds in the wake of the front. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1016 mb surface high is centered to the north of Hispaniola and extends across the basin. To the east, the tail end of a dissipating stationary front extends over the Virgin Islands and southeast Puerto Rico with isolated showers. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin except west of 80W, where moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail. Expect during the next 24 hours for the pressure gradient to increase across the west Caribbean as a cold front approaches. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Northwesterly winds and dry air in subsidence prevails over island at this time. Hispaniola. These conditions will prevail through the next 24 to 48 hours. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1016 mb surface high prevails across the west Atlantic centered near 26N69W. To the east, a frontal system was analyzed as a cold front extending from 32N42W to a 1014 mb low centered near 24N51W to 27N48W, then as a weakening stationary front from that point to 18N65W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 100 nm on either side of the cold front between 39W-48W. A surface ridge prevails across the eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1026 mb stationary high centered near 33N25W. Expect for the surface low and weakening front to dissipate within the next 24 hours. The cold front will continue moving east with convection. A new cold front will enter our area of discussion in the western Atlantic by this evening. Gale-force winds will develop in the west Atlantic as this front moves through. Please refer to the section above for more details. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA