000 AXNT20 KNHC 220536 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1236 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A strong cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast overnight with northwest winds increasing to 30-35 kt shortly after sunrise today with seas building to 11 ft. By Sunday afternoon, northwest winds of 30-40 KT spread over the northern half of the Gulf with seas building to 16 ft. By late Sunday, the broad fetch of gale-force winds builds seas to 20 ft. For more information, please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...ATLANTIC GALE WARNING... The same cold front noted above will sweep eastward into the southwest Atlantic with southwest winds increasing to 30-35 kt north of 31N west of 77W by this evening and seas building to 13 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Africa near 09N14W to 04N20W. The ITCZ begins from that point to 02N32W to 01S44W. Isolated showers prevail within 200 nm on either side of the boundaries between 15W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... Fair weather prevails across the basin at this time. A deepening low pressure is centered over Northern Texas extending a cold front to northern Mexico. This system will continue moving east extending across the northern Gulf waters during the next 24 hours supporting the gale-force winds that will develop in this area mainly west of the front. Please refer to the section above for more details. At this time, scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh southerly winds across the basin. Expect for the front to sweep rapidly east and extend from the Florida Big Bend into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico by the afternoon hours. Conditions will improve gradually from west to east by early next week as a surface ridge builds in the wake of the front. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface high is centered to the north of Hispaniola and extends across the basin. To the east, the tail end of a dissipating cold front extends over the Virgin Islands with isolated showers. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin except west of 80W, where moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail. Expect during the next 24 hours for the pressure gradient to increase across the west Caribbean as a cold front approaches. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...HISPANIOLA... Northwesterly winds and dry air in subsidence prevails over island at this time. Hispaniola. These conditions will prevail through the next 24 to 48 hours. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1017 mb surface high prevails across the west Atlantic centered near 23N68W. To the east, a frontal system was analyzed as a cold front extending from 32N43W to 27N48W, then as a stationary front from that point to a 1014 mb low centered near 25N52W. A weakening cold front extends from the low to 19N62W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 100 nm on either side of the cold front between 39W-48W. A surface ridge prevails across the eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 32N25W. Expect for the surface low and weakening front to dissipate within the next 24 hours. The cold front will continue moving east with convection. A new cold front will exit Eastern US by late Sunday. Gale force winds will develop in the west Atlantic as this boundary moves through. Please refer to the section above for details. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA