000 AXNT20 KNHC 211139 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 638 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale-force winds to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico... A cold front is expected to move across the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Gale-force winds will develop north of 22N and west of 90W by early Sunday and prevail through the day. Seas in this area will range between 9 to 12 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...Gale-force winds over the central Atlantic... A cold front will approach from the northwest. An area of gale- force winds will develop north of 29N and west of 78W with seas to 13 ft by Sunday morning. These winds will continue through the day. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 01N28W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from that point to 02N30W to the coast of South America near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm on either side of the Monsoon trough/ITCZ between 12W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Latest surface observations continue to report fog over the northwest Gulf mainly north of 27N and west of 88W. The fog will dissipate in the late morning hours. Fair weather prevails elsewhere. Scatterometer data depicts moderate southerly winds prevailing across the whole basin. Expect for a cold front to enter the western Gulf on Saturday. Gale-force winds are expected to develop across the western Gulf behind the front. Please refer to the section above for details. CARIBBEAN SEA... An area of high pressure centered just north of Cuba and extends across the basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across most of the basin except north of Honduras south of 18N and west of 83W, where fresh to strong southeasterly winds prevail. A cold front was analyzed north of Puerto Rico along 19N with isolated showers. Expect for the winds near Honduras to continue pulsing through the next 24 hours as a frontal boundary approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. The winds will then weaken by late Sunday. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails over the island with 10-15 northeast winds. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1018 mb surface high is centered over the Bahamas near 24N75W. A cold front extends over the central Atlantic from 31N44W to 23N53W to 19N67W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm east of the front mainly north of 29N and west of 40W. A 1026 mb surface high is centered over the east Atlantic near 33N27W with fair weather. Expect over the next 24 hours for central Atlantic front to move slowly east with convection mainly over the northern portion of it. An area of gale-force winds will develop over the west Atlantic. See the section above for details. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA