000 AXNT20 KNHC 210532 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1232 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gale-force winds over the central Atlantic... A cold front extends from 31N45W to 24N56W to 20N67W. Gale-force winds are noted north of 28N and within 120 nm southeast of the front. Seas in this are are expected to reach 11 to 16 ft. These conditions are expected to diminish by 21/0600 UTC. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. Another area of gale-force winds will develop north of 27N and west of 77W with seas to 12 ft by Sunday morning. These winds will continue through the day. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...Gale-force winds to develop over the western Gulf of Mexico... A cold front is expected to move across the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Gale force winds will develop north of 25N and west of 92W by early Sunday and prevail through the day. Seas in this area will range between 8 to 11 ft. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to 04N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from that point to 02N30W to the coast of South America near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 17W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Latest surface observations are reporting fog over the northwest Gulf mainly north of 27N and west of 90W. The fog will dissipate in the late morning hours. Fair weather prevails elsewhere. Scatterometer data depicts moderate southerly winds prevailing across the whole basin. Expect for a cold front to enter the western Gulf on Saturday. Gale- force winds are expected to develop behind the front. Please refer to the section above for details. CARIBBEAN SEA... An area of high pressure centered just north of Cuba extends across the basin. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades across most of the basin except north of Honduras south of 18N and west of 83W where fresh to strong southeasterly winds prevail. A cold front was analyzed north of Puerto Rico along 20N with isolated showers. A pre-frontal trough extends north of the Virgin Islands from 21N59W to 19N64W with showers within 30 nm of it. Expect over the next 24 hours for scattered showers to advect over the Leeward Islands while the pre-frontal surface trough moves east. The winds near Honduras will continue pulsing through the next 24 hours as a frontal boundary approaches from the Gulf of Mexico, then weakening by late Sunday. ...HISPANIOLA... Fair weather prevails over the island with 10-15 northeast winds. Expect little change over the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1017 mb surface high is centered over the Bahamas near 24N75W. A cold front extends over the central Atlantic from 31N45W to 24N55W to 20N68W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm east of the front mainly north of 27N and west of 40W. Gale-force winds also prevail SE of the front for a few more hours. Please refer to the section above for details. A 1027 mb surface high is centered over the E Atlantic near 32N27W with fair weather. Expect over the next 24 hours for central Atlantic front to move slowly east with convection mainly over the northern portion of it. Another area of gale-force winds will develop over the west Atlantic. See the section above for details. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA