000 AXNT20 KNHC 191207 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 526 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad area of low pressure analyzed currently as a 997 mb low centered near 37N63W is forecast to strengthen during the next 24 hours while moving eastward. The associated cold front extends from the low center to 32N66W to 30N72W to the South Carolina coast near 33N79W. Near gale to gale force SW to W winds are occurring generally N of 30N between the front and 65W. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to 05N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 05N15W to 01N36W to the Equator near 41W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 07N between 27W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A middle to upper level ridge is noted on water vapor imagery over much of the Gulf basin this morning with axis along 85W. To the west of the ridge axis...southwesterly flow aloft prevails between the ridging and an approaching middle to upper level trough with axis currently over western Texas and NW Mexico. The troughing supports a weak area of low pressure across eastern Texas and a stationary front extending from near 30N94W S-SW to the coast of Mexico near Tampico. Scattered to numerous showers and scattered tstms are occurring across portions of the NW Gulf N of 23N W of 92W...including interior portions of Louisiana and SE Texas. The front is expected to become diffuse through Friday as surface ridging remains anchored to the east across the Florida peninsula and Bahamas. The next cold front is forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Saturday night late into Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tranquil conditions prevail across the basin this morning. Much of the quiet weather is due in large part to N-NW flow aloft... strong subsidence...and dry air as noted on water vapor imagery. Moderate to occasional fresh trades were depicted on recent scatterometer data...with slightly higher trades occurring within close proximity to the coast of Colombia. This overall synoptic pattern is expected to persist as high pressure will remain anchored to the N across the SW North Atlc through Saturday. The next significant cold front is expected to enter the NW Caribbean Sunday night late into Monday shifting winds northerly across the western Caribbean early next week. ...HISPANIOLA... Moderate NE winds prevail across the island and adjacent coastal waters this morning. Winds will diminish slightly through the next 24-36 hours as the pressure gradient weakens and high pressure anchored to the N of the island across the SE Bahamas persists. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A middle to upper level shortwave trough is noted on water vapor imagery in the vicinity of 33N66W that supports the Special Features low pressure area and associated cold front. Aside from the gale force winds...scattered showers and tstms are occurring N of 28N between 60W-77W. Otherwise...the remainder of the SW North Atlc waters are under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high centered across the NW Bahamas. Farther east...another middle to upper level trough axis extends from 30N45W SW to 14N60W and supports a stationary front analyzed from 32N31W to 26N51W. Isolated showers are occurring within 90 nm either side of the front. The weak front bridges between two high pressure areas...one a 1022 mb high centered near 32N35W and the second a 1023 mb high centered near 33N21W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ HUFFMAN